Trader sentiment in the Federal Reserve rate-cut market heavily favors zero additional easing through the end of 2026, with the leading outcome priced at a 70.3% implied probability. Elevated inflation, partly driven by higher global energy prices amid ongoing Middle East tensions, has prompted the FOMC to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in recent meetings while stressing data dependence and the 2% target. A stable labor market, with unemployment little changed near 4.3%, has further reduced expectations for near-term policy shifts. Brokerage forecasts have shifted toward holding rates through year-end or into 2027, aligning with CME FedWatch pricing that assigns roughly 70% odds to no cuts. Upcoming CPI releases and FOMC communications could still alter the path if inflation moderates faster than anticipated.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日0（0ベーシスポイント） 70.2%
1回（25ベーシスポイント） 16%
2（50ベーシスポイント） 7%
3回（75ベーシスポイント） 2.6%
$26,945,898 Vol.
$26,945,898 Vol.
2026/12/31
0（0ベーシスポイント）
70%
1回（25ベーシスポイント）
16%
2（50ベーシスポイント）
7%
3回（75ベーシスポイント）
3%
4回（100ベーシスポイント）
1%
5回（125ベーシスポイント）
1%
6回（150ベーシスポイント）
1%
7回（175ベーシスポイント）
<1%
8回（200ベーシスポイント）
<1%
9回（225ベーシスポイント）
<1%
10（250ベーシスポイント）
<1%
11回（275ベーシスポイント）
<1%
12回以上（300bps以上）
1%
0（0ベーシスポイント） 70.2%
1回（25ベーシスポイント） 16%
2（50ベーシスポイント） 7%
3回（75ベーシスポイント） 2.6%
$26,945,898 Vol.
$26,945,898 Vol.
2026/12/31
0（0ベーシスポイント）
$4,189,211 Vol.
70%
1回（25ベーシスポイント）
$1,245,187 Vol.
16%
2（50ベーシスポイント）
$1,204,668 Vol.
7%
3回（75ベーシスポイント）
$1,114,221 Vol.
3%
4回（100ベーシスポイント）
$1,197,176 Vol.
1%
5回（125ベーシスポイント）
$1,419,013 Vol.
1%
6回（150ベーシスポイント）
$2,493,628 Vol.
1%
7回（175ベーシスポイント）
$1,325,475 Vol.
<1%
8回（200ベーシスポイント）
$1,735,528 Vol.
<1%
9回（225ベーシスポイント）
$2,455,822 Vol.
<1%
10（250ベーシスポイント）
$3,124,342 Vol.
<1%
11回（275ベーシスポイント）
$3,275,373 Vol.
<1%
12回以上（300bps以上）
$2,166,257 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Trader sentiment in the Federal Reserve rate-cut market heavily favors zero additional easing through the end of 2026, with the leading outcome priced at a 70.3% implied probability. Elevated inflation, partly driven by higher global energy prices amid ongoing Middle East tensions, has prompted the FOMC to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in recent meetings while stressing data dependence and the 2% target. A stable labor market, with unemployment little changed near 4.3%, has further reduced expectations for near-term policy shifts. Brokerage forecasts have shifted toward holding rates through year-end or into 2027, aligning with CME FedWatch pricing that assigns roughly 70% odds to no cuts. Upcoming CPI releases and FOMC communications could still alter the path if inflation moderates faster than anticipated.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
マーケット開始日： Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
音量
$26,945,898終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Trader sentiment in the Federal Reserve rate-cut market heavily favors zero additional easing through the end of 2026, with the leading outcome priced at a 70.3% implied probability. Elevated inflation, partly driven by higher global energy prices amid ongoing Middle East tensions, has prompted the FOMC to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in recent meetings while stressing data dependence and the 2% target. A stable labor market, with unemployment little changed near 4.3%, has further reduced expectations for near-term policy shifts. Brokerage forecasts have shifted toward holding rates through year-end or into 2027, aligning with CME FedWatch pricing that assigns roughly 70% odds to no cuts. Upcoming CPI releases and FOMC communications could still alter the path if inflation moderates faster than anticipated.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
音量
$26,945,898終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment in the Federal Reserve rate-cut market heavily favors zero additional easing through the end of 2026, with the leading outcome priced at a 70.3% implied probability. Elevated inflation, partly driven by higher global energy prices amid ongoing Middle East tensions, has prompted the FOMC to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in recent meetings while stressing data dependence and the 2% target. A stable labor market, with unemployment little changed near 4.3%, has further reduced expectations for near-term policy shifts. Brokerage forecasts have shifted toward holding rates through year-end or into 2027, aligning with CME FedWatch pricing that assigns roughly 70% odds to no cuts. Upcoming CPI releases and FOMC communications could still alter the path if inflation moderates faster than anticipated.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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