Elevated inflation pressures from the ongoing Middle East conflict and higher energy prices have driven the strong market-implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, now at 70.3 percent according to trader positioning. Recent data show headline CPI rising to 3.3 percent in March amid elevated oil costs, while the labor market remains resilient with unemployment steady at 4.3 percent and solid job gains. Brokerage forecasts from BofA and Goldman Sachs have shifted toward holding rates at the current 3.50–3.75 percent target range through year-end, with any easing now pushed into 2027. This consensus reflects caution around sticky core inflation near 2.6–3.0 percent and limited scope for monetary easing given stable economic conditions. Key upcoming catalysts include the next FOMC meetings and fresh CPI releases that could further shape the implied rate path.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日0（0ベーシスポイント） 70.2%
1回（25ベーシスポイント） 16%
2（50ベーシスポイント） 7%
3回（75ベーシスポイント） 2.6%
$26,962,683 Vol.
$26,962,683 Vol.
2026/12/31
0（0ベーシスポイント）
70%
1回（25ベーシスポイント）
16%
2（50ベーシスポイント）
7%
3回（75ベーシスポイント）
3%
4回（100ベーシスポイント）
1%
5回（125ベーシスポイント）
1%
6回（150ベーシスポイント）
1%
7回（175ベーシスポイント）
<1%
8回（200ベーシスポイント）
<1%
9回（225ベーシスポイント）
<1%
10（250ベーシスポイント）
<1%
11回（275ベーシスポイント）
<1%
12回以上（300bps以上）
1%
0（0ベーシスポイント） 70.2%
1回（25ベーシスポイント） 16%
2（50ベーシスポイント） 7%
3回（75ベーシスポイント） 2.6%
$26,962,683 Vol.
$26,962,683 Vol.
2026/12/31
0（0ベーシスポイント）
$4,190,221 Vol.
70%
1回（25ベーシスポイント）
$1,245,242 Vol.
16%
2（50ベーシスポイント）
$1,204,676 Vol.
7%
3回（75ベーシスポイント）
$1,114,221 Vol.
3%
4回（100ベーシスポイント）
$1,197,957 Vol.
1%
5回（125ベーシスポイント）
$1,420,154 Vol.
1%
6回（150ベーシスポイント）
$2,496,909 Vol.
1%
7回（175ベーシスポイント）
$1,326,974 Vol.
<1%
8回（200ベーシスポイント）
$1,737,503 Vol.
<1%
9回（225ベーシスポイント）
$2,457,050 Vol.
<1%
10（250ベーシスポイント）
$3,126,177 Vol.
<1%
11回（275ベーシスポイント）
$3,276,985 Vol.
<1%
12回以上（300bps以上）
$2,168,835 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated inflation pressures from the ongoing Middle East conflict and higher energy prices have driven the strong market-implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, now at 70.3 percent according to trader positioning. Recent data show headline CPI rising to 3.3 percent in March amid elevated oil costs, while the labor market remains resilient with unemployment steady at 4.3 percent and solid job gains. Brokerage forecasts from BofA and Goldman Sachs have shifted toward holding rates at the current 3.50–3.75 percent target range through year-end, with any easing now pushed into 2027. This consensus reflects caution around sticky core inflation near 2.6–3.0 percent and limited scope for monetary easing given stable economic conditions. Key upcoming catalysts include the next FOMC meetings and fresh CPI releases that could further shape the implied rate path.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
マーケット開始日： Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
音量
$26,962,683終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated inflation pressures from the ongoing Middle East conflict and higher energy prices have driven the strong market-implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, now at 70.3 percent according to trader positioning. Recent data show headline CPI rising to 3.3 percent in March amid elevated oil costs, while the labor market remains resilient with unemployment steady at 4.3 percent and solid job gains. Brokerage forecasts from BofA and Goldman Sachs have shifted toward holding rates at the current 3.50–3.75 percent target range through year-end, with any easing now pushed into 2027. This consensus reflects caution around sticky core inflation near 2.6–3.0 percent and limited scope for monetary easing given stable economic conditions. Key upcoming catalysts include the next FOMC meetings and fresh CPI releases that could further shape the implied rate path.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
音量
$26,962,683終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Elevated inflation pressures from the ongoing Middle East conflict and higher energy prices have driven the strong market-implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, now at 70.3 percent according to trader positioning. Recent data show headline CPI rising to 3.3 percent in March amid elevated oil costs, while the labor market remains resilient with unemployment steady at 4.3 percent and solid job gains. Brokerage forecasts from BofA and Goldman Sachs have shifted toward holding rates at the current 3.50–3.75 percent target range through year-end, with any easing now pushed into 2027. This consensus reflects caution around sticky core inflation near 2.6–3.0 percent and limited scope for monetary easing given stable economic conditions. Key upcoming catalysts include the next FOMC meetings and fresh CPI releases that could further shape the implied rate path.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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