Recent hotter-than-expected April CPI and core PCE readings, compounded by energy price spikes from the Iran conflict, have anchored the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance and driven the 70.3% implied probability of zero 2026 rate cuts. The FOMC has held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% through its latest meetings, with hawkish dissents and upward revisions to 2026 inflation forecasts underscoring caution. Brokerage projections from BofA and Goldman Sachs now defer any easing into 2027, while CME FedWatch futures price near-100% odds of no change at the June meeting. Resilient labor-market data further support this hold-through-2026 consensus, though any sustained cooling in inflation could reopen the door for modest cuts later in the year.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日0（0ベーシスポイント） 70.2%
1回（25ベーシスポイント） 16%
2（50ベーシスポイント） 7%
3回（75ベーシスポイント） 2.8%
$26,964,672 Vol.
$26,964,672 Vol.
2026/12/31
0（0ベーシスポイント）
70%
1回（25ベーシスポイント）
16%
2（50ベーシスポイント）
7%
3回（75ベーシスポイント）
3%
4回（100ベーシスポイント）
2%
5回（125ベーシスポイント）
1%
6回（150ベーシスポイント）
1%
7回（175ベーシスポイント）
<1%
8回（200ベーシスポイント）
<1%
9回（225ベーシスポイント）
<1%
10（250ベーシスポイント）
<1%
11回（275ベーシスポイント）
<1%
12回以上（300bps以上）
1%
0（0ベーシスポイント） 70.2%
1回（25ベーシスポイント） 16%
2（50ベーシスポイント） 7%
3回（75ベーシスポイント） 2.8%
$26,964,672 Vol.
$26,964,672 Vol.
2026/12/31
0（0ベーシスポイント）
$4,190,333 Vol.
70%
1回（25ベーシスポイント）
$1,245,242 Vol.
16%
2（50ベーシスポイント）
$1,204,676 Vol.
7%
3回（75ベーシスポイント）
$1,114,226 Vol.
3%
4回（100ベーシスポイント）
$1,198,394 Vol.
2%
5回（125ベーシスポイント）
$1,420,417 Vol.
1%
6回（150ベーシスポイント）
$2,497,153 Vol.
1%
7回（175ベーシスポイント）
$1,327,047 Vol.
<1%
8回（200ベーシスポイント）
$1,737,983 Vol.
<1%
9回（225ベーシスポイント）
$2,457,054 Vol.
<1%
10（250ベーシスポイント）
$3,126,478 Vol.
<1%
11回（275ベーシスポイント）
$3,277,080 Vol.
<1%
12回以上（300bps以上）
$2,169,067 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent hotter-than-expected April CPI and core PCE readings, compounded by energy price spikes from the Iran conflict, have anchored the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance and driven the 70.3% implied probability of zero 2026 rate cuts. The FOMC has held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% through its latest meetings, with hawkish dissents and upward revisions to 2026 inflation forecasts underscoring caution. Brokerage projections from BofA and Goldman Sachs now defer any easing into 2027, while CME FedWatch futures price near-100% odds of no change at the June meeting. Resilient labor-market data further support this hold-through-2026 consensus, though any sustained cooling in inflation could reopen the door for modest cuts later in the year.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
マーケット開始日： Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
音量
$26,964,672終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent hotter-than-expected April CPI and core PCE readings, compounded by energy price spikes from the Iran conflict, have anchored the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance and driven the 70.3% implied probability of zero 2026 rate cuts. The FOMC has held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% through its latest meetings, with hawkish dissents and upward revisions to 2026 inflation forecasts underscoring caution. Brokerage projections from BofA and Goldman Sachs now defer any easing into 2027, while CME FedWatch futures price near-100% odds of no change at the June meeting. Resilient labor-market data further support this hold-through-2026 consensus, though any sustained cooling in inflation could reopen the door for modest cuts later in the year.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
音量
$26,964,672終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent hotter-than-expected April CPI and core PCE readings, compounded by energy price spikes from the Iran conflict, have anchored the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance and driven the 70.3% implied probability of zero 2026 rate cuts. The FOMC has held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% through its latest meetings, with hawkish dissents and upward revisions to 2026 inflation forecasts underscoring caution. Brokerage projections from BofA and Goldman Sachs now defer any easing into 2027, while CME FedWatch futures price near-100% odds of no change at the June meeting. Resilient labor-market data further support this hold-through-2026 consensus, though any sustained cooling in inflation could reopen the door for modest cuts later in the year.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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