Ongoing Houthi threats, including July 2026 blockade announcements targeting Saudi shipping and associated attacks on tankers, represent the dominant driver of suppressed transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, keeping volumes well below pre-2023 averages near 75 ships daily. Recent data show daily crossings fluctuating around 28–39 vessels amid rerouting to the Cape of Good Hope, with tanker traffic down roughly 40% and overall tonnage notably lower than Q2 levels. Close market-implied odds across the four buckets reflect trader uncertainty over whether incremental de-escalation or resumed carrier sailings can lift the week of August 17 into the 180–199 range, or if fresh incidents sustain sub-160 readings. Key swing factors include any immediate escalation in Red Sea incidents, diplomatic signals on U.S.-Iran or Saudi-Yemeni tensions, and shifts in marine insurance premiums or operator risk appetite, all of which could alter tonnage and vessel counts before resolution.