Heightened Houthi control over key Yemeni coastal positions, including Perim Island seized in mid-September 2026, has intensified security risks and prompted rerouting or protective AIS signaling by commercial vessels. Kpler and Windward data show daily transits through the Bab el-Mandeb averaging 21–27 in the week of September 14, with notable drops in outbound Saudi-linked and crude shipments amid a maritime embargo and elevated war-risk premiums. These conditions have compressed volumes well below pre-crisis baselines, driving the market-implied 59% probability on fewer than 170 weekly transits as traders price in sustained caution from carriers and persistent dark-transit activity. Upcoming resolution hinges on whether any near-term de-escalation materializes before week-end data finalize.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日170未満 60%
170-189 15%
190-209 14%
210-229 7%
$13,487 Vol.
$13,487 Vol.
2026/09/20
170未満
60%
170-189
15%
190-209
9%
210-229
7%
230隻以上
4%
170未満 60%
170-189 15%
190-209 14%
210-229 7%
$13,487 Vol.
$13,487 Vol.
2026/09/20
170未満
$5,243 Vol.
60%
170-189
$2,709 Vol.
15%
190-209
$2,690 Vol.
9%
210-229
$1,367 Vol.
7%
230隻以上
$1,479 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Heightened Houthi control over key Yemeni coastal positions, including Perim Island seized in mid-September 2026, has intensified security risks and prompted rerouting or protective AIS signaling by commercial vessels. Kpler and Windward data show daily transits through the Bab el-Mandeb averaging 21–27 in the week of September 14, with notable drops in outbound Saudi-linked and crude shipments amid a maritime embargo and elevated war-risk premiums. These conditions have compressed volumes well below pre-crisis baselines, driving the market-implied 59% probability on fewer than 170 weekly transits as traders price in sustained caution from carriers and persistent dark-transit activity. Upcoming resolution hinges on whether any near-term de-escalation materializes before week-end data finalize.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
マーケット開始日： Sep 11, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
音量
$13,487終了日
2026/09/20マーケット開始日
Sep 11, 2026, 5:48 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Heightened Houthi control over key Yemeni coastal positions, including Perim Island seized in mid-September 2026, has intensified security risks and prompted rerouting or protective AIS signaling by commercial vessels. Kpler and Windward data show daily transits through the Bab el-Mandeb averaging 21–27 in the week of September 14, with notable drops in outbound Saudi-linked and crude shipments amid a maritime embargo and elevated war-risk premiums. These conditions have compressed volumes well below pre-crisis baselines, driving the market-implied 59% probability on fewer than 170 weekly transits as traders price in sustained caution from carriers and persistent dark-transit activity. Upcoming resolution hinges on whether any near-term de-escalation materializes before week-end data finalize.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
音量
$13,487終了日
2026/09/20マーケット開始日
Sep 11, 2026, 5:48 PM ETHeightened Houthi control over key Yemeni coastal positions, including Perim Island seized in mid-September 2026, has intensified security risks and prompted rerouting or protective AIS signaling by commercial vessels. Kpler and Windward data show daily transits through the Bab el-Mandeb averaging 21–27 in the week of September 14, with notable drops in outbound Saudi-linked and crude shipments amid a maritime embargo and elevated war-risk premiums. These conditions have compressed volumes well below pre-crisis baselines, driving the market-implied 59% probability on fewer than 170 weekly transits as traders price in sustained caution from carriers and persistent dark-transit activity. Upcoming resolution hinges on whether any near-term de-escalation materializes before week-end data finalize.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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