Ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions, including a renewed blockade and competing control claims, represent the dominant driver keeping weekly Strait of Hormuz transits suppressed near the 25-ship threshold. Kpler and MarineTraffic data show daily volumes stuck in the low single digits to low teens through mid-August, reflecting elevated war-risk insurance premiums, rerouting incentives via the Cape, and reduced tanker activity amid oil-market volatility. With the 25-49 bucket holding a slim 51.5% implied probability versus 46% for sub-25, trader consensus prices in persistent uncertainty around any near-term de-escalation or compliance shifts that could lift throughput. Key differentiators include potential FOMC-adjacent energy price swings and regulatory filings on sanctions enforcement that could alter freight economics before week-end resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日25〜49 58%
25未満 41%
50〜74 1.6%
75〜99 <1%
$40,855 Vol.
$40,855 Vol.
2026/08/16
25未満
41%
25〜49
58%
50〜74
2%
75〜99
<1%
100以上
<1%
25〜49 58%
25未満 41%
50〜74 1.6%
75〜99 <1%
$40,855 Vol.
$40,855 Vol.
2026/08/16
25未満
$15,560 Vol.
41%
25〜49
$15,638 Vol.
58%
50〜74
$6,798 Vol.
2%
75〜99
$1,663 Vol.
<1%
100以上
$1,197 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions, including a renewed blockade and competing control claims, represent the dominant driver keeping weekly Strait of Hormuz transits suppressed near the 25-ship threshold. Kpler and MarineTraffic data show daily volumes stuck in the low single digits to low teens through mid-August, reflecting elevated war-risk insurance premiums, rerouting incentives via the Cape, and reduced tanker activity amid oil-market volatility. With the 25-49 bucket holding a slim 51.5% implied probability versus 46% for sub-25, trader consensus prices in persistent uncertainty around any near-term de-escalation or compliance shifts that could lift throughput. Key differentiators include potential FOMC-adjacent energy price swings and regulatory filings on sanctions enforcement that could alter freight economics before week-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
マーケット開始日： Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
音量
$40,855終了日
2026/08/16マーケット開始日
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions, including a renewed blockade and competing control claims, represent the dominant driver keeping weekly Strait of Hormuz transits suppressed near the 25-ship threshold. Kpler and MarineTraffic data show daily volumes stuck in the low single digits to low teens through mid-August, reflecting elevated war-risk insurance premiums, rerouting incentives via the Cape, and reduced tanker activity amid oil-market volatility. With the 25-49 bucket holding a slim 51.5% implied probability versus 46% for sub-25, trader consensus prices in persistent uncertainty around any near-term de-escalation or compliance shifts that could lift throughput. Key differentiators include potential FOMC-adjacent energy price swings and regulatory filings on sanctions enforcement that could alter freight economics before week-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
音量
$40,855終了日
2026/08/16マーケット開始日
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions, including a renewed blockade and competing control claims, represent the dominant driver keeping weekly Strait of Hormuz transits suppressed near the 25-ship threshold. Kpler and MarineTraffic data show daily volumes stuck in the low single digits to low teens through mid-August, reflecting elevated war-risk insurance premiums, rerouting incentives via the Cape, and reduced tanker activity amid oil-market volatility. With the 25-49 bucket holding a slim 51.5% implied probability versus 46% for sub-25, trader consensus prices in persistent uncertainty around any near-term de-escalation or compliance shifts that could lift throughput. Key differentiators include potential FOMC-adjacent energy price swings and regulatory filings on sanctions enforcement that could alter freight economics before week-end resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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