Recent attacks on commercial vessels, including two UAE-linked tankers, combined with an ongoing U.S. naval blockade and Iranian threats have driven daily transits through the Strait of Hormuz to single-digit or low-teen levels in mid-August 2026, well below the pre-conflict average of roughly 130 ships. Ship-tracking data from sources like Kpler show five-day averages near 13 as of early August, with visible crude oil movements near zero amid rerouting of dozens of vessels and heightened insurance risks. These factors anchor trader consensus around the 25-49 weekly total bin, as persistent geopolitical friction and enforcement measures limit recovery despite occasional MoU discussions, while sub-25 outcomes price in further disruptions. The week of August 17 begins amid this suppressed baseline, with no immediate de-escalation signals.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日25〜49 57%
25未満 36%
50～74 4.3%
75〜99 <1%
新規
新規
2026/08/23
25未満
36%
25〜49
57%
50～74
4%
75〜99
1%
100隻以上
1%
25〜49 57%
25未満 36%
50～74 4.3%
75〜99 <1%
新規
新規
2026/08/23
25未満
$1,422 Vol.
36%
25〜49
$942 Vol.
57%
50～74
$230 Vol.
4%
75〜99
$222 Vol.
1%
100隻以上
$159 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Recent attacks on commercial vessels, including two UAE-linked tankers, combined with an ongoing U.S. naval blockade and Iranian threats have driven daily transits through the Strait of Hormuz to single-digit or low-teen levels in mid-August 2026, well below the pre-conflict average of roughly 130 ships. Ship-tracking data from sources like Kpler show five-day averages near 13 as of early August, with visible crude oil movements near zero amid rerouting of dozens of vessels and heightened insurance risks. These factors anchor trader consensus around the 25-49 weekly total bin, as persistent geopolitical friction and enforcement measures limit recovery despite occasional MoU discussions, while sub-25 outcomes price in further disruptions. The week of August 17 begins amid this suppressed baseline, with no immediate de-escalation signals.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
マーケット開始日： Aug 14, 2026, 4:50 PM ET
音量
$2,975終了日
2026/08/23マーケット開始日
Aug 14, 2026, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Recent attacks on commercial vessels, including two UAE-linked tankers, combined with an ongoing U.S. naval blockade and Iranian threats have driven daily transits through the Strait of Hormuz to single-digit or low-teen levels in mid-August 2026, well below the pre-conflict average of roughly 130 ships. Ship-tracking data from sources like Kpler show five-day averages near 13 as of early August, with visible crude oil movements near zero amid rerouting of dozens of vessels and heightened insurance risks. These factors anchor trader consensus around the 25-49 weekly total bin, as persistent geopolitical friction and enforcement measures limit recovery despite occasional MoU discussions, while sub-25 outcomes price in further disruptions. The week of August 17 begins amid this suppressed baseline, with no immediate de-escalation signals.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
音量
$2,975終了日
2026/08/23マーケット開始日
Aug 14, 2026, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent attacks on commercial vessels, including two UAE-linked tankers, combined with an ongoing U.S. naval blockade and Iranian threats have driven daily transits through the Strait of Hormuz to single-digit or low-teen levels in mid-August 2026, well below the pre-conflict average of roughly 130 ships. Ship-tracking data from sources like Kpler show five-day averages near 13 as of early August, with visible crude oil movements near zero amid rerouting of dozens of vessels and heightened insurance risks. These factors anchor trader consensus around the 25-49 weekly total bin, as persistent geopolitical friction and enforcement measures limit recovery despite occasional MoU discussions, while sub-25 outcomes price in further disruptions. The week of August 17 begins amid this suppressed baseline, with no immediate de-escalation signals.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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