Incumbent Democrat Frank Mrvan's decisive 85% win in the May 5 Democratic primary against LaVetta Sparks-Wade has solidified trader consensus favoring a Democratic hold in Indiana's 1st Congressional District, rated Likely Democratic by Cook Political Report with a D+1 partisan voting index. Mrvan, who secured victories in 2024 (53%) and 2022 (53%), faces Republican Porter County Commissioner Barb Regnitz, who took 50% in a fragmented GOP primary. Strong incumbency advantages, comparable Inside Elections Lean D rating, and Mrvan's competitive fundraising underpin the 78% implied probability, though national midterm dynamics or late polling could influence the November 3 general election outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/04
民主党
81%
共和党
19%
新規
新規
2026/11/04
民主党
$152 Vol.
81%
共和党
$291 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Frank Mrvan's decisive 85% win in the May 5 Democratic primary against LaVetta Sparks-Wade has solidified trader consensus favoring a Democratic hold in Indiana's 1st Congressional District, rated Likely Democratic by Cook Political Report with a D+1 partisan voting index. Mrvan, who secured victories in 2024 (53%) and 2022 (53%), faces Republican Porter County Commissioner Barb Regnitz, who took 50% in a fragmented GOP primary. Strong incumbency advantages, comparable Inside Elections Lean D rating, and Mrvan's competitive fundraising underpin the 78% implied probability, though national midterm dynamics or late polling could influence the November 3 general election outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Dec 16, 2025, 11:52 AM ET
音量
$443終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 11:52 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Frank Mrvan's decisive 85% win in the May 5 Democratic primary against LaVetta Sparks-Wade has solidified trader consensus favoring a Democratic hold in Indiana's 1st Congressional District, rated Likely Democratic by Cook Political Report with a D+1 partisan voting index. Mrvan, who secured victories in 2024 (53%) and 2022 (53%), faces Republican Porter County Commissioner Barb Regnitz, who took 50% in a fragmented GOP primary. Strong incumbency advantages, comparable Inside Elections Lean D rating, and Mrvan's competitive fundraising underpin the 78% implied probability, though national midterm dynamics or late polling could influence the November 3 general election outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$443終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 11:52 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Frank Mrvan's decisive 85% win in the May 5 Democratic primary against LaVetta Sparks-Wade has solidified trader consensus favoring a Democratic hold in Indiana's 1st Congressional District, rated Likely Democratic by Cook Political Report with a D+1 partisan voting index. Mrvan, who secured victories in 2024 (53%) and 2022 (53%), faces Republican Porter County Commissioner Barb Regnitz, who took 50% in a fragmented GOP primary. Strong incumbency advantages, comparable Inside Elections Lean D rating, and Mrvan's competitive fundraising underpin the 78% implied probability, though national midterm dynamics or late polling could influence the November 3 general election outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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