Incumbent Rep. Jim Baird (R) decisively won Indiana's 4th Congressional District Republican primary on May 5, defeating challengers Craig Haggard and John Piper, while Drew Cox emerged from a crowded Democratic primary. This solidly Republican district, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+15, has delivered consistent GOP landslides, bolstering trader consensus at 91% for the Republican Party in the November general election. Baird's incumbency advantage, endorsements from figures like Rep. Jim Jordan, and the district's rural conservative base underpin the commanding odds. Upsets remain possible via a major scandal, health issues, or an overwhelming national Democratic wave, though historical base rates in safe seats suggest low likelihood.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
91%
民主党
9%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
$1,351 Vol.
91%
民主党
$80 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Jim Baird (R) decisively won Indiana's 4th Congressional District Republican primary on May 5, defeating challengers Craig Haggard and John Piper, while Drew Cox emerged from a crowded Democratic primary. This solidly Republican district, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+15, has delivered consistent GOP landslides, bolstering trader consensus at 91% for the Republican Party in the November general election. Baird's incumbency advantage, endorsements from figures like Rep. Jim Jordan, and the district's rural conservative base underpin the commanding odds. Upsets remain possible via a major scandal, health issues, or an overwhelming national Democratic wave, though historical base rates in safe seats suggest low likelihood.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
音量
$1,431終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Jim Baird (R) decisively won Indiana's 4th Congressional District Republican primary on May 5, defeating challengers Craig Haggard and John Piper, while Drew Cox emerged from a crowded Democratic primary. This solidly Republican district, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+15, has delivered consistent GOP landslides, bolstering trader consensus at 91% for the Republican Party in the November general election. Baird's incumbency advantage, endorsements from figures like Rep. Jim Jordan, and the district's rural conservative base underpin the commanding odds. Upsets remain possible via a major scandal, health issues, or an overwhelming national Democratic wave, though historical base rates in safe seats suggest low likelihood.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$1,431終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Jim Baird (R) decisively won Indiana's 4th Congressional District Republican primary on May 5, defeating challengers Craig Haggard and John Piper, while Drew Cox emerged from a crowded Democratic primary. This solidly Republican district, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+15, has delivered consistent GOP landslides, bolstering trader consensus at 91% for the Republican Party in the November general election. Baird's incumbency advantage, endorsements from figures like Rep. Jim Jordan, and the district's rural conservative base underpin the commanding odds. Upsets remain possible via a major scandal, health issues, or an overwhelming national Democratic wave, though historical base rates in safe seats suggest low likelihood.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問