Incumbent Republican Jefferson Shreve's victory in the May 5 primary—securing 53% against challenger Sarah Janisse Brown—has solidified trader consensus at 90.5% implied probability for a GOP hold in Indiana's 6th Congressional District, rated Solid Republican with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+16. Facing Democratic nominee Cynthia Wirth in a rematch from his prior win, Shreve benefits from incumbency advantage and the district's strong Republican lean in this midterm cycle. No recent polls show competitive positioning, reflecting historical base rates for safe seats. Scenarios that could shift odds include a major Shreve scandal, national Democratic wave, or legal challenges before the November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
91%
民主党
9%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
$6,274 Vol.
91%
民主党
$714 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jefferson Shreve's victory in the May 5 primary—securing 53% against challenger Sarah Janisse Brown—has solidified trader consensus at 90.5% implied probability for a GOP hold in Indiana's 6th Congressional District, rated Solid Republican with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+16. Facing Democratic nominee Cynthia Wirth in a rematch from his prior win, Shreve benefits from incumbency advantage and the district's strong Republican lean in this midterm cycle. No recent polls show competitive positioning, reflecting historical base rates for safe seats. Scenarios that could shift odds include a major Shreve scandal, national Democratic wave, or legal challenges before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
音量
$6,988終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jefferson Shreve's victory in the May 5 primary—securing 53% against challenger Sarah Janisse Brown—has solidified trader consensus at 90.5% implied probability for a GOP hold in Indiana's 6th Congressional District, rated Solid Republican with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+16. Facing Democratic nominee Cynthia Wirth in a rematch from his prior win, Shreve benefits from incumbency advantage and the district's strong Republican lean in this midterm cycle. No recent polls show competitive positioning, reflecting historical base rates for safe seats. Scenarios that could shift odds include a major Shreve scandal, national Democratic wave, or legal challenges before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$6,988終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Jefferson Shreve's victory in the May 5 primary—securing 53% against challenger Sarah Janisse Brown—has solidified trader consensus at 90.5% implied probability for a GOP hold in Indiana's 6th Congressional District, rated Solid Republican with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+16. Facing Democratic nominee Cynthia Wirth in a rematch from his prior win, Shreve benefits from incumbency advantage and the district's strong Republican lean in this midterm cycle. No recent polls show competitive positioning, reflecting historical base rates for safe seats. Scenarios that could shift odds include a major Shreve scandal, national Democratic wave, or legal challenges before the November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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