Mojtaba Khamenei's dominant 82.5% consensus reflects his rapid March 2026 selection by the Assembly of Experts as Supreme Leader following Ali Khamenei's assassination in U.S.-Israeli strikes, leveraging his long-standing role in the Office of the Supreme Leader and close IRGC ties to consolidate power amid wartime instability. Traders price continuity through year-end despite his limited public profile and reported leg injuries sustained early in the conflict, with recent official statements—including from President Pezeshkian—affirming his active engagement and health. Lower probabilities for figures like Alireza Arafi or others stem from the decisive vote bypassing interim council arrangements and the regime's preference for institutional continuity over alternatives during ongoing regional tensions. Historical precedents of swift post-assassination transitions further support the current pricing, though any major health disclosures or internal dissent could introduce volatility before December 2026.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日モジュタバ・ハメネイ 82.5%
国家元首不在 4.3%
レザ・パフラヴィ 3.4%
アリレザ・アラフィ 2.5%
$38,639,562 Vol.
$38,639,562 Vol.
2026/12/31
モジュタバ・ハメネイ
83%
国家元首不在
4%
レザ・パフラヴィ
3%
アリレザ・アラフィ
2%
マフムード・アフマディーネジャード
2%
ハッサン・ロウハニ
1%
アフマド・ヴァヒーディー
1%
ハッサン・ホメイニ
1%
マスード・ペゼシュキアン
1%
モハンマド＝バゲル・ガリバフ
1%
ムハンマド・ミルバキリ
<1%
アッバース・アラークチー
<1%
サーデグ・ラリジャニ
<1%
ハッサン・シャリアトマダリ
<1%
マリアム・ラジャビ
<1%
マスード・ラジャビ
<1%
セイエド・ホセイン・モサヴィアン
<1%
レザ・ピルザデ
<1%
ナビド・ショマリ
<1%
ムスタファ・ヒジリ
<1%
アリ・モタハリ
<1%
ゴラムアリ・ハッダード＝アーデル
<1%
モスタファ・プールモハンマディ
<1%
サーデグ・マフスーリー
<1%
サイード・ジャリリ
<1%
モハンマド・ハータミ
<1%
モフセン・アラキ
<1%
ナシル・ホセイニ
<1%
アフマド・ホセイニ・コラーサーニー
<1%
アリー・アスガル・ヘジャジ
<1%
モジュタバ・ハメネイ 82.5%
国家元首不在 4.3%
レザ・パフラヴィ 3.4%
アリレザ・アラフィ 2.5%
$38,639,562 Vol.
$38,639,562 Vol.
2026/12/31
モジュタバ・ハメネイ
$6,044,100 Vol.
83%
国家元首不在
$1,148,676 Vol.
4%
レザ・パフラヴィ
$672,396 Vol.
3%
アリレザ・アラフィ
$2,311,688 Vol.
2%
マフムード・アフマディーネジャード
$1,120,634 Vol.
2%
ハッサン・ロウハニ
$944,728 Vol.
1%
アフマド・ヴァヒーディー
$776,835 Vol.
1%
ハッサン・ホメイニ
$1,425,383 Vol.
1%
マスード・ペゼシュキアン
$1,020,011 Vol.
1%
モハンマド＝バゲル・ガリバフ
$918,080 Vol.
1%
ムハンマド・ミルバキリ
$437,675 Vol.
<1%
アッバース・アラークチー
$833,512 Vol.
<1%
サーデグ・ラリジャニ
$535,501 Vol.
<1%
ハッサン・シャリアトマダリ
$3,143,945 Vol.
<1%
マリアム・ラジャビ
$804,789 Vol.
<1%
マスード・ラジャビ
$397,209 Vol.
<1%
セイエド・ホセイン・モサヴィアン
$3,694,534 Vol.
<1%
レザ・ピルザデ
$145,393 Vol.
<1%
ナビド・ショマリ
$211,365 Vol.
<1%
ムスタファ・ヒジリ
$199,186 Vol.
<1%
アリ・モタハリ
$836,226 Vol.
<1%
ゴラムアリ・ハッダード＝アーデル
$433,350 Vol.
<1%
モスタファ・プールモハンマディ
$3,346,965 Vol.
<1%
サーデグ・マフスーリー
$239,231 Vol.
<1%
サイード・ジャリリ
$384,741 Vol.
<1%
モハンマド・ハータミ
$5,192,090 Vol.
<1%
モフセン・アラキ
$281,762 Vol.
<1%
ナシル・ホセイニ
$254,575 Vol.
<1%
アフマド・ホセイニ・コラーサーニー
$306,671 Vol.
<1%
アリー・アスガル・ヘジャジ
$341,451 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei's dominant 82.5% consensus reflects his rapid March 2026 selection by the Assembly of Experts as Supreme Leader following Ali Khamenei's assassination in U.S.-Israeli strikes, leveraging his long-standing role in the Office of the Supreme Leader and close IRGC ties to consolidate power amid wartime instability. Traders price continuity through year-end despite his limited public profile and reported leg injuries sustained early in the conflict, with recent official statements—including from President Pezeshkian—affirming his active engagement and health. Lower probabilities for figures like Alireza Arafi or others stem from the decisive vote bypassing interim council arrangements and the regime's preference for institutional continuity over alternatives during ongoing regional tensions. Historical precedents of swift post-assassination transitions further support the current pricing, though any major health disclosures or internal dissent could introduce volatility before December 2026.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
マーケット開始日： Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
音量
$38,639,562終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei's dominant 82.5% consensus reflects his rapid March 2026 selection by the Assembly of Experts as Supreme Leader following Ali Khamenei's assassination in U.S.-Israeli strikes, leveraging his long-standing role in the Office of the Supreme Leader and close IRGC ties to consolidate power amid wartime instability. Traders price continuity through year-end despite his limited public profile and reported leg injuries sustained early in the conflict, with recent official statements—including from President Pezeshkian—affirming his active engagement and health. Lower probabilities for figures like Alireza Arafi or others stem from the decisive vote bypassing interim council arrangements and the regime's preference for institutional continuity over alternatives during ongoing regional tensions. Historical precedents of swift post-assassination transitions further support the current pricing, though any major health disclosures or internal dissent could introduce volatility before December 2026.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
音量
$38,639,562終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Mojtaba Khamenei's dominant 82.5% consensus reflects his rapid March 2026 selection by the Assembly of Experts as Supreme Leader following Ali Khamenei's assassination in U.S.-Israeli strikes, leveraging his long-standing role in the Office of the Supreme Leader and close IRGC ties to consolidate power amid wartime instability. Traders price continuity through year-end despite his limited public profile and reported leg injuries sustained early in the conflict, with recent official statements—including from President Pezeshkian—affirming his active engagement and health. Lower probabilities for figures like Alireza Arafi or others stem from the decisive vote bypassing interim council arrangements and the regime's preference for institutional continuity over alternatives during ongoing regional tensions. Historical precedents of swift post-assassination transitions further support the current pricing, though any major health disclosures or internal dissent could introduce volatility before December 2026.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
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