The near-certain 99.8% market-implied probability against removal of Jones Act domestic shipping requirements by June 30 reflects the absence of any permanent legislative repeal, statutory amendment, or executive action that would eliminate the core U.S.-build, U.S.-flag, U.S.-own, and U.S.-crew mandates. Recent temporary waivers—initially issued March 17 for 60 days and extended 90 days through mid-August—addressed short-term energy supply disruptions tied to the Iran conflict but preserved the 1920 law’s framework and drew immediate opposition from maritime unions and operators citing national security and domestic shipyard employment. No bills advancing full deregulation have progressed in Congress, consistent with the statute’s entrenched protectionist structure. While an unforeseen logistics crisis could theoretically prompt broader reform before resolution, the proximity to the June 30 deadline and sustained stakeholder resistance make such a shift improbable.