Current forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and supporting numerical weather models converge on a minimum temperature of 23°C for May 17, driven by overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and a light northeasterly flow that limits mixing of warmer air. This consensus reflects typical pre-monsoon conditions in the region, where historical May overnight lows often fall between 22–25°C amid subtropical high pressure and moist easterly influences. Traders have priced the 23°C outcome at full implied probability because recent model runs show minimal spread and align closely with observational baselines. A sudden increase in cloud cover or shift to stronger winds could still allow the recorded low to deviate by a degree or two before official confirmation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日5月17日の香港の最低気温は?
23°C 99.6%
18℃以下 <1%
28°C以上 <1%
19°C <1%
$28,500 Vol.
$28,500 Vol.
18℃以下
<1%
19°C
<1%
20℃
<1%
21°C
<1%
22℃
<1%
23°C
100%
24℃
<1%
25℃
<1%
26℃
<1%
27℃
<1%
28°C以上
<1%
23°C 99.6%
18℃以下 <1%
28°C以上 <1%
19°C <1%
$28,500 Vol.
$28,500 Vol.
18℃以下
<1%
19°C
<1%
20℃
<1%
21°C
<1%
22℃
<1%
23°C
100%
24℃
<1%
25℃
<1%
26℃
<1%
27℃
<1%
28°C以上
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Current forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and supporting numerical weather models converge on a minimum temperature of 23°C for May 17, driven by overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and a light northeasterly flow that limits mixing of warmer air. This consensus reflects typical pre-monsoon conditions in the region, where historical May overnight lows often fall between 22–25°C amid subtropical high pressure and moist easterly influences. Traders have priced the 23°C outcome at full implied probability because recent model runs show minimal spread and align closely with observational baselines. A sudden increase in cloud cover or shift to stronger winds could still allow the recorded low to deviate by a degree or two before official confirmation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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