**Mitch McConnell’s prolonged absence from the Senate floor since his June 11 vote continues to shape trader expectations.** The 84-year-old Kentucky Republican has not cast a roll-call vote in more than two months after a mid-June fall that left him briefly unconscious, followed by pneumonia treatment and extended rehabilitation. He was released from rehab on August 6 and is now continuing intensive physical therapy at home while engaging staff remotely, but he has made no public appearances or confirmed return date. McConnell has stated he will retire at the end of his term in January 2027 and previously signaled that recovery “takes time” on doctors’ advice. With the Senate returning from recess around September 14 and facing a September 30 appropriations deadline, the lack of recent in-person activity and limited health transparency have led traders to assign a 72% probability that he will not vote by the end of the month. Colleagues have expressed hope for a September return for key business, yet the extended absence and age-related mobility factors remain the dominant drivers of current pricing.