Incumbent Rep. Mark Alford's bid for re-election in solidly Republican Missouri's 4th Congressional District underpins trader consensus favoring the GOP at 92.5%, reflecting the seat's R+21 partisan lean and Alford's dominant 71% victories in 2022 and 2024 generals amid 2024 Trump margins of 59-39%. Alford boasts superior fundraising with over $1.1 million raised and $742,000 cash on hand through March, dwarfing Democratic primary contenders like Hartzell Gray. No recent polling exists, but forecasters including Cook Political Report rate it Solid Republican. Scenarios challenging this include an Alford primary loss to challengers Heather Shelton or Scott Vera on August 4, a major scandal, or an overwhelming national Democratic midterm wave.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$28,496 Vol.
$28,496 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
93%
民主党
7%
$28,496 Vol.
$28,496 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
$15,073 Vol.
93%
民主党
$13,422 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Mark Alford's bid for re-election in solidly Republican Missouri's 4th Congressional District underpins trader consensus favoring the GOP at 92.5%, reflecting the seat's R+21 partisan lean and Alford's dominant 71% victories in 2022 and 2024 generals amid 2024 Trump margins of 59-39%. Alford boasts superior fundraising with over $1.1 million raised and $742,000 cash on hand through March, dwarfing Democratic primary contenders like Hartzell Gray. No recent polling exists, but forecasters including Cook Political Report rate it Solid Republican. Scenarios challenging this include an Alford primary loss to challengers Heather Shelton or Scott Vera on August 4, a major scandal, or an overwhelming national Democratic midterm wave.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
音量
$28,496終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Mark Alford's bid for re-election in solidly Republican Missouri's 4th Congressional District underpins trader consensus favoring the GOP at 92.5%, reflecting the seat's R+21 partisan lean and Alford's dominant 71% victories in 2022 and 2024 generals amid 2024 Trump margins of 59-39%. Alford boasts superior fundraising with over $1.1 million raised and $742,000 cash on hand through March, dwarfing Democratic primary contenders like Hartzell Gray. No recent polling exists, but forecasters including Cook Political Report rate it Solid Republican. Scenarios challenging this include an Alford primary loss to challengers Heather Shelton or Scott Vera on August 4, a major scandal, or an overwhelming national Democratic midterm wave.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$28,496終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Mark Alford's bid for re-election in solidly Republican Missouri's 4th Congressional District underpins trader consensus favoring the GOP at 92.5%, reflecting the seat's R+21 partisan lean and Alford's dominant 71% victories in 2022 and 2024 generals amid 2024 Trump margins of 59-39%. Alford boasts superior fundraising with over $1.1 million raised and $742,000 cash on hand through March, dwarfing Democratic primary contenders like Hartzell Gray. No recent polling exists, but forecasters including Cook Political Report rate it Solid Republican. Scenarios challenging this include an Alford primary loss to challengers Heather Shelton or Scott Vera on August 4, a major scandal, or an overwhelming national Democratic midterm wave.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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