Strong consensus forecasts for positive U.S. real GDP growth of 2.0–2.5% in 2026 underpin the 96% market-implied odds against negative annual growth. Recent data, including 1.5% annualized expansion in Q2 2026 and resilient investment in AI-driven capex alongside fiscal tailwinds, support this view, as do projections from the CBO, Goldman Sachs, and Vanguard. Labor market stability near 4.1% unemployment and moderating inflation have kept monetary policy expectations balanced without signaling contraction. Tail risks such as sharper consumer spending weakness, escalated trade policy effects, or labor market deterioration could still pressure outcomes, though current indicators show limited signs of these materializing before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
4% 確率
$32,234 Vol.
$32,234 Vol.
2027/01/29
はい
4% 確率
$32,234 Vol.
$32,234 Vol.
2027/01/29
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Strong consensus forecasts for positive U.S. real GDP growth of 2.0–2.5% in 2026 underpin the 96% market-implied odds against negative annual growth. Recent data, including 1.5% annualized expansion in Q2 2026 and resilient investment in AI-driven capex alongside fiscal tailwinds, support this view, as do projections from the CBO, Goldman Sachs, and Vanguard. Labor market stability near 4.1% unemployment and moderating inflation have kept monetary policy expectations balanced without signaling contraction. Tail risks such as sharper consumer spending weakness, escalated trade policy effects, or labor market deterioration could still pressure outcomes, though current indicators show limited signs of these materializing before year-end.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
音量
$32,234終了日
2027/01/29マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Strong consensus forecasts for positive U.S. real GDP growth of 2.0–2.5% in 2026 underpin the 96% market-implied odds against negative annual growth. Recent data, including 1.5% annualized expansion in Q2 2026 and resilient investment in AI-driven capex alongside fiscal tailwinds, support this view, as do projections from the CBO, Goldman Sachs, and Vanguard. Labor market stability near 4.1% unemployment and moderating inflation have kept monetary policy expectations balanced without signaling contraction. Tail risks such as sharper consumer spending weakness, escalated trade policy effects, or labor market deterioration could still pressure outcomes, though current indicators show limited signs of these materializing before year-end.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
音量
$32,234終了日
2027/01/29マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Strong consensus forecasts for positive U.S. real GDP growth of 2.0–2.5% in 2026 underpin the 96% market-implied odds against negative annual growth. Recent data, including 1.5% annualized expansion in Q2 2026 and resilient investment in AI-driven capex alongside fiscal tailwinds, support this view, as do projections from the CBO, Goldman Sachs, and Vanguard. Labor market stability near 4.1% unemployment and moderating inflation have kept monetary policy expectations balanced without signaling contraction. Tail risks such as sharper consumer spending weakness, escalated trade policy effects, or labor market deterioration could still pressure outcomes, though current indicators show limited signs of these materializing before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問