Robust U.S. economic data and broad consensus forecasts underpin the 93.7% market-implied probability that real GDP will avoid negative growth in 2026. The advance estimate showed annualized real GDP expanding 2.0% in the first quarter, rebounding from 0.5% in late 2025, with strength in business investment and consumer spending. Major forecasters, including the Congressional Budget Office at 2.2% and Goldman Sachs at 2.6%, project solid expansion for the full year, supported by fiscal measures from the prior reconciliation act and ongoing AI-related capital expenditures that offset tariff pressures and slower immigration. While a sharper contraction in consumer demand or intensified trade frictions could still test this outlook, current leading indicators point to continued positive momentum through year-end.