Google's delayed Gemini 3.5 Pro rollout, with the last flagship Pro model (3.1) shipping in February and repeated internal performance shortfalls pushing timelines into late summer or beyond, underpins the market's 86.5% implied probability of no release by August 31. Recent August 13 deployment of Gemini 3.7 Flash and prior July Flash variants show Google prioritizing lighter models while the Pro version remains in partner testing without a confirmed public date or API endpoint. Trader consensus reflects historical cadence, where ambitious frontier updates often slip, leaving little near-term catalyst for an August launch despite ongoing pre-training for Gemini 4.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日No release by August 31 86.5%
August 26 3.7%
August 27 3.4%
August 31 2.7%
$268,131 Vol.
$268,131 Vol.
2026/08/10
August 17
2%
August 18
1%
August 19
1%
August 20
1%
August 21
<1%
August 22
<1%
August 23
1%
August 24
1%
August 25
1%
August 26
4%
August 27
3%
August 28
1%
August 29
<1%
August 30
<1%
August 31
3%
No release by August 31
86%
No release by August 31 86.5%
August 26 3.7%
August 27 3.4%
August 31 2.7%
$268,131 Vol.
$268,131 Vol.
2026/08/10
August 17
$3,756 Vol.
2%
August 18
$3,980 Vol.
1%
August 19
$3,146 Vol.
1%
August 20
$2,840 Vol.
1%
August 21
$2,259 Vol.
<1%
August 22
$2,686 Vol.
<1%
August 23
$2,054 Vol.
1%
August 24
$4,463 Vol.
1%
August 25
$5,391 Vol.
1%
August 26
$4,370 Vol.
4%
August 27
$8,567 Vol.
3%
August 28
$4,001 Vol.
1%
August 29
$4,785 Vol.
<1%
August 30
$2,318 Vol.
<1%
August 31
$7,643 Vol.
3%
No release by August 31
$51,681 Vol.
86%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google's delayed Gemini 3.5 Pro rollout, with the last flagship Pro model (3.1) shipping in February and repeated internal performance shortfalls pushing timelines into late summer or beyond, underpins the market's 86.5% implied probability of no release by August 31. Recent August 13 deployment of Gemini 3.7 Flash and prior July Flash variants show Google prioritizing lighter models while the Pro version remains in partner testing without a confirmed public date or API endpoint. Trader consensus reflects historical cadence, where ambitious frontier updates often slip, leaving little near-term catalyst for an August launch despite ongoing pre-training for Gemini 4.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Jul 29, 2026, 3:09 PM ET
音量
$268,131終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Jul 29, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google's delayed Gemini 3.5 Pro rollout, with the last flagship Pro model (3.1) shipping in February and repeated internal performance shortfalls pushing timelines into late summer or beyond, underpins the market's 86.5% implied probability of no release by August 31. Recent August 13 deployment of Gemini 3.7 Flash and prior July Flash variants show Google prioritizing lighter models while the Pro version remains in partner testing without a confirmed public date or API endpoint. Trader consensus reflects historical cadence, where ambitious frontier updates often slip, leaving little near-term catalyst for an August launch despite ongoing pre-training for Gemini 4.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$268,131終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Jul 29, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
Google's delayed Gemini 3.5 Pro rollout, with the last flagship Pro model (3.1) shipping in February and repeated internal performance shortfalls pushing timelines into late summer or beyond, underpins the market's 86.5% implied probability of no release by August 31. Recent August 13 deployment of Gemini 3.7 Flash and prior July Flash variants show Google prioritizing lighter models while the Pro version remains in partner testing without a confirmed public date or API endpoint. Trader consensus reflects historical cadence, where ambitious frontier updates often slip, leaving little near-term catalyst for an August launch despite ongoing pre-training for Gemini 4.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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外部リンクに注意してください。
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