xAI's rapid iteration on the Grok series, including frequent updates like Grok 4.1's November 2025 Text Arena debut at #1 on LMArena and subsequent additions such as Grok 4.3 and Grok 4.20 variants, drives trader focus on the timing of the next model's leaderboard appearance. Multiple models are training simultaneously on the Colossus cluster, with Grok 4.4 expected soon after recent 4.x releases and Grok 5 targeted later at much larger scale. Competitive pressure from Claude, Gemini, and OpenAI models on text benchmarks, combined with xAI's pattern of stealth or quick arena entries after internal testing, shapes expectations around release cadences. Key catalysts include official xAI announcements, API integrations, and any verified leaderboard uploads that could accelerate or delay the debut.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
2026/12/31
1440+
64%
1450+
47%
1460+
45%
1470+
45%
1480+
46%
$20 Vol.
1440+
$20 Vol.
64%
1450+
$0 Vol.
47%
1460+
$0 Vol.
45%
1470+
$0 Vol.
45%
1480+
$0 Vol.
46%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next xAI Grok model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be attributed to xAI and have “Grok” in its displayed model name, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, version numbers, dates, or descriptors. For example, grok-5-high, grok-4.5-thinking, or similar would qualify. Models not attributed to xAI, or xAI models whose displayed name does not include “Grok,” will not qualify.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered.
A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".xAI's rapid iteration on the Grok series, including frequent updates like Grok 4.1's November 2025 Text Arena debut at #1 on LMArena and subsequent additions such as Grok 4.3 and Grok 4.20 variants, drives trader focus on the timing of the next model's leaderboard appearance. Multiple models are training simultaneously on the Colossus cluster, with Grok 4.4 expected soon after recent 4.x releases and Grok 5 targeted later at much larger scale. Competitive pressure from Claude, Gemini, and OpenAI models on text benchmarks, combined with xAI's pattern of stealth or quick arena entries after internal testing, shapes expectations around release cadences. Key catalysts include official xAI announcements, API integrations, and any verified leaderboard uploads that could accelerate or delay the debut.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next xAI Grok model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be attributed to xAI and have “Grok” in its displayed model name, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, version numbers, dates, or descriptors. For example, grok-5-high, grok-4.5-thinking, or similar would qualify. Models not attributed to xAI, or xAI models whose displayed name does not include “Grok,” will not qualify.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered.
A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be attributed to xAI and have “Grok” in its displayed model name, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, version numbers, dates, or descriptors. For example, grok-5-high, grok-4.5-thinking, or similar would qualify. Models not attributed to xAI, or xAI models whose displayed name does not include “Grok,” will not qualify.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered.
A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
マーケット開始日： Jul 7, 2026, 9:26 PM ET
音量
$20終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jul 7, 2026, 9:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next xAI Grok model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be attributed to xAI and have “Grok” in its displayed model name, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, version numbers, dates, or descriptors. For example, grok-5-high, grok-4.5-thinking, or similar would qualify. Models not attributed to xAI, or xAI models whose displayed name does not include “Grok,” will not qualify.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered.
A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".xAI's rapid iteration on the Grok series, including frequent updates like Grok 4.1's November 2025 Text Arena debut at #1 on LMArena and subsequent additions such as Grok 4.3 and Grok 4.20 variants, drives trader focus on the timing of the next model's leaderboard appearance. Multiple models are training simultaneously on the Colossus cluster, with Grok 4.4 expected soon after recent 4.x releases and Grok 5 targeted later at much larger scale. Competitive pressure from Claude, Gemini, and OpenAI models on text benchmarks, combined with xAI's pattern of stealth or quick arena entries after internal testing, shapes expectations around release cadences. Key catalysts include official xAI announcements, API integrations, and any verified leaderboard uploads that could accelerate or delay the debut.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next xAI Grok model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be attributed to xAI and have “Grok” in its displayed model name, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, version numbers, dates, or descriptors. For example, grok-5-high, grok-4.5-thinking, or similar would qualify. Models not attributed to xAI, or xAI models whose displayed name does not include “Grok,” will not qualify.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered.
A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be attributed to xAI and have “Grok” in its displayed model name, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, version numbers, dates, or descriptors. For example, grok-5-high, grok-4.5-thinking, or similar would qualify. Models not attributed to xAI, or xAI models whose displayed name does not include “Grok,” will not qualify.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered.
A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
音量
$20終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jul 7, 2026, 9:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...xAI's rapid iteration on the Grok series, including frequent updates like Grok 4.1's November 2025 Text Arena debut at #1 on LMArena and subsequent additions such as Grok 4.3 and Grok 4.20 variants, drives trader focus on the timing of the next model's leaderboard appearance. Multiple models are training simultaneously on the Colossus cluster, with Grok 4.4 expected soon after recent 4.x releases and Grok 5 targeted later at much larger scale. Competitive pressure from Claude, Gemini, and OpenAI models on text benchmarks, combined with xAI's pattern of stealth or quick arena entries after internal testing, shapes expectations around release cadences. Key catalysts include official xAI announcements, API integrations, and any verified leaderboard uploads that could accelerate or delay the debut.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問