OpenAI's trader consensus tilts heavily against a $1 trillion-plus IPO before 2027, with "No" at 79% implied probability, driven by the company's March 2026 closure of a record $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion post-money valuation that bolsters its private runway and diminishes near-term public listing urgency. No S-1 filing or official IPO announcement has emerged as of early May, despite earlier October 2025 reports eyeing a second-half 2026 debut, amid April investor scrutiny over strategy shifts and a reported Q1 revenue shortfall relative to sky-high expectations. Achieving $1T+ would demand explosive growth in AI capabilities, user adoption, and enterprise deals within seven months, a tall order given historical product delays and regulatory headwinds for large language models. Key catalysts ahead include potential S-1 filings, Q2 earnings previews, or competitive moves from Anthropic and xAI that could accelerate or derail timelines.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$269,322 Vol.
$269,322 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$269,322 Vol.
$269,322 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.OpenAI's trader consensus tilts heavily against a $1 trillion-plus IPO before 2027, with "No" at 79% implied probability, driven by the company's March 2026 closure of a record $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion post-money valuation that bolsters its private runway and diminishes near-term public listing urgency. No S-1 filing or official IPO announcement has emerged as of early May, despite earlier October 2025 reports eyeing a second-half 2026 debut, amid April investor scrutiny over strategy shifts and a reported Q1 revenue shortfall relative to sky-high expectations. Achieving $1T+ would demand explosive growth in AI capabilities, user adoption, and enterprise deals within seven months, a tall order given historical product delays and regulatory headwinds for large language models. Key catalysts ahead include potential S-1 filings, Q2 earnings previews, or competitive moves from Anthropic and xAI that could accelerate or derail timelines.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ET
音量
$269,322終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.OpenAI's trader consensus tilts heavily against a $1 trillion-plus IPO before 2027, with "No" at 79% implied probability, driven by the company's March 2026 closure of a record $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion post-money valuation that bolsters its private runway and diminishes near-term public listing urgency. No S-1 filing or official IPO announcement has emerged as of early May, despite earlier October 2025 reports eyeing a second-half 2026 debut, amid April investor scrutiny over strategy shifts and a reported Q1 revenue shortfall relative to sky-high expectations. Achieving $1T+ would demand explosive growth in AI capabilities, user adoption, and enterprise deals within seven months, a tall order given historical product delays and regulatory headwinds for large language models. Key catalysts ahead include potential S-1 filings, Q2 earnings previews, or competitive moves from Anthropic and xAI that could accelerate or derail timelines.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
音量
$269,322終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OpenAI's trader consensus tilts heavily against a $1 trillion-plus IPO before 2027, with "No" at 79% implied probability, driven by the company's March 2026 closure of a record $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion post-money valuation that bolsters its private runway and diminishes near-term public listing urgency. No S-1 filing or official IPO announcement has emerged as of early May, despite earlier October 2025 reports eyeing a second-half 2026 debut, amid April investor scrutiny over strategy shifts and a reported Q1 revenue shortfall relative to sky-high expectations. Achieving $1T+ would demand explosive growth in AI capabilities, user adoption, and enterprise deals within seven months, a tall order given historical product delays and regulatory headwinds for large language models. Key catalysts ahead include potential S-1 filings, Q2 earnings previews, or competitive moves from Anthropic and xAI that could accelerate or derail timelines.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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