Recent polling averages ahead of Spain’s November 29 snap election project ERC at roughly 2.2–2.5 % nationally, translating into 9–12 seats under the D’Hondt system in Catalan provinces. Central estimates cluster around 9–12 deputies, with the widest probability mass on 8–11 seats, consistent with current market pricing. ERC has shown modest gains relative to its 2023 result of seven seats, driven by improved positioning in Barcelona, Girona, Lleida and Tarragona where it contests the final seat against Junts and other lists. Broader national trends, including a strong PP–Vox lead and fragmentation on the left, limit upside while the narrow margins in key Catalan districts sustain variance between the 6–7 and 10–11 seat bands. No major late-breaking shifts have altered these ranges in the past week.