Ongoing US-mediated talks between Ukraine and Russia, including May 2026 meetings in the United States and earlier rounds in Geneva, have produced only short-term ceasefires and prisoner exchanges without addressing core disputes over territorial control in Donbas or long-term security guarantees. Russian officials continue to insist on maximalist concessions, while Ukrainian leaders emphasize the need for verifiable protections and reject unilateral withdrawals. With the conflict in its fifth year and battlefield lines largely frozen amid a broader stalemate, diplomatic efforts have repeatedly stalled despite external facilitation. These persistent gaps explain why prediction markets currently assign a 74.5% implied probability that no comprehensive peace agreement will be signed before 2027.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$595,849 Vol.
$595,849 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$595,849 Vol.
$595,849 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ongoing US-mediated talks between Ukraine and Russia, including May 2026 meetings in the United States and earlier rounds in Geneva, have produced only short-term ceasefires and prisoner exchanges without addressing core disputes over territorial control in Donbas or long-term security guarantees. Russian officials continue to insist on maximalist concessions, while Ukrainian leaders emphasize the need for verifiable protections and reject unilateral withdrawals. With the conflict in its fifth year and battlefield lines largely frozen amid a broader stalemate, diplomatic efforts have repeatedly stalled despite external facilitation. These persistent gaps explain why prediction markets currently assign a 74.5% implied probability that no comprehensive peace agreement will be signed before 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
音量
$595,849終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ongoing US-mediated talks between Ukraine and Russia, including May 2026 meetings in the United States and earlier rounds in Geneva, have produced only short-term ceasefires and prisoner exchanges without addressing core disputes over territorial control in Donbas or long-term security guarantees. Russian officials continue to insist on maximalist concessions, while Ukrainian leaders emphasize the need for verifiable protections and reject unilateral withdrawals. With the conflict in its fifth year and battlefield lines largely frozen amid a broader stalemate, diplomatic efforts have repeatedly stalled despite external facilitation. These persistent gaps explain why prediction markets currently assign a 74.5% implied probability that no comprehensive peace agreement will be signed before 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$595,849終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-mediated talks between Ukraine and Russia, including May 2026 meetings in the United States and earlier rounds in Geneva, have produced only short-term ceasefires and prisoner exchanges without addressing core disputes over territorial control in Donbas or long-term security guarantees. Russian officials continue to insist on maximalist concessions, while Ukrainian leaders emphasize the need for verifiable protections and reject unilateral withdrawals. With the conflict in its fifth year and battlefield lines largely frozen amid a broader stalemate, diplomatic efforts have repeatedly stalled despite external facilitation. These persistent gaps explain why prediction markets currently assign a 74.5% implied probability that no comprehensive peace agreement will be signed before 2027.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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