Ongoing diplomatic efforts since late 2025, including U.S.-brokered rounds in Geneva, the UAE, and Switzerland, have produced no signed agreement as of mid-2026. Core barriers persist around territorial concessions in Donbas and other regions, the duration and nature of security guarantees, and Russia's maximalist demands, with fighting continuing unabated. Multiple negotiation timelines, including earlier 2026 targets, have slipped without resolution, and Ukrainian officials have emphasized the need for referendums or elections alongside any deal. These entrenched positions and lack of recent breakthroughs underpin trader consensus on the low likelihood of a formal peace deal before 2027.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
18% 確率
$2,546,455 Vol.
$2,546,455 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
18% 確率
$2,546,455 Vol.
$2,546,455 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ongoing diplomatic efforts since late 2025, including U.S.-brokered rounds in Geneva, the UAE, and Switzerland, have produced no signed agreement as of mid-2026. Core barriers persist around territorial concessions in Donbas and other regions, the duration and nature of security guarantees, and Russia's maximalist demands, with fighting continuing unabated. Multiple negotiation timelines, including earlier 2026 targets, have slipped without resolution, and Ukrainian officials have emphasized the need for referendums or elections alongside any deal. These entrenched positions and lack of recent breakthroughs underpin trader consensus on the low likelihood of a formal peace deal before 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
音量
$2,546,455終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ongoing diplomatic efforts since late 2025, including U.S.-brokered rounds in Geneva, the UAE, and Switzerland, have produced no signed agreement as of mid-2026. Core barriers persist around territorial concessions in Donbas and other regions, the duration and nature of security guarantees, and Russia's maximalist demands, with fighting continuing unabated. Multiple negotiation timelines, including earlier 2026 targets, have slipped without resolution, and Ukrainian officials have emphasized the need for referendums or elections alongside any deal. These entrenched positions and lack of recent breakthroughs underpin trader consensus on the low likelihood of a formal peace deal before 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$2,546,455終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing diplomatic efforts since late 2025, including U.S.-brokered rounds in Geneva, the UAE, and Switzerland, have produced no signed agreement as of mid-2026. Core barriers persist around territorial concessions in Donbas and other regions, the duration and nature of security guarantees, and Russia's maximalist demands, with fighting continuing unabated. Multiple negotiation timelines, including earlier 2026 targets, have slipped without resolution, and Ukrainian officials have emphasized the need for referendums or elections alongside any deal. These entrenched positions and lack of recent breakthroughs underpin trader consensus on the low likelihood of a formal peace deal before 2027.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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