Congress has repeatedly raised or suspended the debt limit ahead of any breach, with the most recent $5 trillion increase enacted in 2025 pushing the ceiling to $41.1 trillion. Projections indicate the limit could be reached in late 2027 at the earliest, followed by six to nine months of extraordinary measures before an X-date, providing extended negotiation windows. The dollar's reserve-currency status, deep Treasury market liquidity, and institutional incentives to avoid payment disruptions underpin the 97% trader consensus against default by 2027. Potential shifts could stem from an unprecedented multi-year impasse or acute fiscal shock eroding willingness to compromise before extraordinary measures expire.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2027年までに米国の債務不履行？
2027年までに米国の債務不履行？
はい
3% 確率
$18,051 Vol.
$18,051 Vol.
2026/12/30
はい
3% 確率
$18,051 Vol.
$18,051 Vol.
2026/12/30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Congress has repeatedly raised or suspended the debt limit ahead of any breach, with the most recent $5 trillion increase enacted in 2025 pushing the ceiling to $41.1 trillion. Projections indicate the limit could be reached in late 2027 at the earliest, followed by six to nine months of extraordinary measures before an X-date, providing extended negotiation windows. The dollar's reserve-currency status, deep Treasury market liquidity, and institutional incentives to avoid payment disruptions underpin the 97% trader consensus against default by 2027. Potential shifts could stem from an unprecedented multi-year impasse or acute fiscal shock eroding willingness to compromise before extraordinary measures expire.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
音量
$18,051終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Congress has repeatedly raised or suspended the debt limit ahead of any breach, with the most recent $5 trillion increase enacted in 2025 pushing the ceiling to $41.1 trillion. Projections indicate the limit could be reached in late 2027 at the earliest, followed by six to nine months of extraordinary measures before an X-date, providing extended negotiation windows. The dollar's reserve-currency status, deep Treasury market liquidity, and institutional incentives to avoid payment disruptions underpin the 97% trader consensus against default by 2027. Potential shifts could stem from an unprecedented multi-year impasse or acute fiscal shock eroding willingness to compromise before extraordinary measures expire.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
音量
$18,051終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Congress has repeatedly raised or suspended the debt limit ahead of any breach, with the most recent $5 trillion increase enacted in 2025 pushing the ceiling to $41.1 trillion. Projections indicate the limit could be reached in late 2027 at the earliest, followed by six to nine months of extraordinary measures before an X-date, providing extended negotiation windows. The dollar's reserve-currency status, deep Treasury market liquidity, and institutional incentives to avoid payment disruptions underpin the 97% trader consensus against default by 2027. Potential shifts could stem from an unprecedented multi-year impasse or acute fiscal shock eroding willingness to compromise before extraordinary measures expire.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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外部リンクに注意してください。
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