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icon for 2027年までに米国の債務不履行？

2027年までに米国の債務不履行？

icon for 2027年までに米国の債務不履行？

2027年までに米国の債務不履行？

12月 31

12月 31

はい

3% 確率
Polymarket

$14,924 Vol.

はい

3% 確率
Polymarket

$14,924 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.The strong trader consensus that the United States will avoid defaulting on its debt obligations through 2027 reflects the July 2025 enactment of legislation that raised the statutory debt limit by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion, creating substantial headroom above current outstanding obligations near $39 trillion. Congress has adjusted or suspended the limit more than 100 times since World War II without triggering a missed payment, relying on Treasury extraordinary measures during impasses and consistent bipartisan incentives to prevent market disruptions and higher borrowing costs. Projections from the Congressional Budget Office indicate deficits will widen, with the next ceiling confrontation likely emerging in mid-to-late 2027, yet historical patterns of last-minute resolutions via continuing resolutions or reconciliation packages continue to anchor expectations. Potential shifts could arise from extreme post-2026 midterm gridlock or attempts to link the limit to unrelated spending priorities, though such outcomes have repeatedly been averted in prior cycles.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
音量
$14,924
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.The strong trader consensus that the United States will avoid defaulting on its debt obligations through 2027 reflects the July 2025 enactment of legislation that raised the statutory debt limit by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion, creating substantial headroom above current outstanding obligations near $39 trillion. Congress has adjusted or suspended the limit more than 100 times since World War II without triggering a missed payment, relying on Treasury extraordinary measures during impasses and consistent bipartisan incentives to prevent market disruptions and higher borrowing costs. Projections from the Congressional Budget Office indicate deficits will widen, with the next ceiling confrontation likely emerging in mid-to-late 2027, yet historical patterns of last-minute resolutions via continuing resolutions or reconciliation packages continue to anchor expectations. Potential shifts could arise from extreme post-2026 midterm gridlock or attempts to link the limit to unrelated spending priorities, though such outcomes have repeatedly been averted in prior cycles.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
音量
$14,924
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「2027年までに米国の債務不履行？」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「2027年までに米国が債務不履行になる？」で3%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、3¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に3%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「2027年までに米国の債務不履行？」は$14.9Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Nov 5, 2025のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「2027年までに米国の債務不履行？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている2個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

これは非常に拮抗した市場です。「2027年までに米国の債務不履行？」の現在のリーダーは「2027年までに米国が債務不履行になる？」でわずか3%です。どの結果も強い多数派を占めていないため、トレーダーはこれを非常に不確実と見ており、独自の取引機会を提供する可能性があります。これらのオッズはリアルタイムで更新されますので、このページをブックマークしてください。

「2027年までに米国の債務不履行？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。