Traders assign a 97% probability that the United States will not default on its debt obligations by the end of 2026 because the statutory debt limit, raised by $5 trillion in the 2025 reconciliation package to $41.1 trillion, still provides meaningful headroom. Independent projections from the Bipartisan Policy Center and National Taxpayers Union place the next contact date between late winter and mid-summer 2027, with extraordinary measures then extending the timeline several months further. This schedule places any realistic X-date after the market’s December 31, 2026 resolution. Congress has repeatedly suspended or increased the ceiling ahead of prior deadlines, and current fiscal dynamics plus post-election incentives reinforce expectations of continued action. Late-breaking developments that could still shift odds include an abrupt revenue shortfall or an unprecedented post-election standoff that prevents even short-term accommodation before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2027年までに米国の債務不履行？
2027年までに米国の債務不履行？
はい
3% 確率
$18,051 Vol.
$18,051 Vol.
2026/12/30
はい
3% 確率
$18,051 Vol.
$18,051 Vol.
2026/12/30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Traders assign a 97% probability that the United States will not default on its debt obligations by the end of 2026 because the statutory debt limit, raised by $5 trillion in the 2025 reconciliation package to $41.1 trillion, still provides meaningful headroom. Independent projections from the Bipartisan Policy Center and National Taxpayers Union place the next contact date between late winter and mid-summer 2027, with extraordinary measures then extending the timeline several months further. This schedule places any realistic X-date after the market’s December 31, 2026 resolution. Congress has repeatedly suspended or increased the ceiling ahead of prior deadlines, and current fiscal dynamics plus post-election incentives reinforce expectations of continued action. Late-breaking developments that could still shift odds include an abrupt revenue shortfall or an unprecedented post-election standoff that prevents even short-term accommodation before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
音量
$18,051終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Traders assign a 97% probability that the United States will not default on its debt obligations by the end of 2026 because the statutory debt limit, raised by $5 trillion in the 2025 reconciliation package to $41.1 trillion, still provides meaningful headroom. Independent projections from the Bipartisan Policy Center and National Taxpayers Union place the next contact date between late winter and mid-summer 2027, with extraordinary measures then extending the timeline several months further. This schedule places any realistic X-date after the market’s December 31, 2026 resolution. Congress has repeatedly suspended or increased the ceiling ahead of prior deadlines, and current fiscal dynamics plus post-election incentives reinforce expectations of continued action. Late-breaking developments that could still shift odds include an abrupt revenue shortfall or an unprecedented post-election standoff that prevents even short-term accommodation before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
音量
$18,051終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 97% probability that the United States will not default on its debt obligations by the end of 2026 because the statutory debt limit, raised by $5 trillion in the 2025 reconciliation package to $41.1 trillion, still provides meaningful headroom. Independent projections from the Bipartisan Policy Center and National Taxpayers Union place the next contact date between late winter and mid-summer 2027, with extraordinary measures then extending the timeline several months further. This schedule places any realistic X-date after the market’s December 31, 2026 resolution. Congress has repeatedly suspended or increased the ceiling ahead of prior deadlines, and current fiscal dynamics plus post-election incentives reinforce expectations of continued action. Late-breaking developments that could still shift odds include an abrupt revenue shortfall or an unprecedented post-election standoff that prevents even short-term accommodation before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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