Recent polling in the Los Angeles mayoral primary shows a fragmented field, with incumbent Karen Bass holding the lead at 25-35 percent while challengers Spencer Pratt and Nithya Raman trail in the low-to-mid 20s and dozens of other candidates split the remainder. UCLA surveys and subsequent tracking polls released in April and May 2026 consistently report 30-40 percent of likely voters undecided just weeks before the June 2 vote. Under the city charter, an outright first-round victory requires a majority; historical patterns and current vote distribution indicate the top two finishers will advance to the November runoff instead. Traders therefore assign 91 percent probability to no candidate securing 50 percent on primary day, reflecting the structural barriers posed by voter dispersion and low name recognition for most contenders.