Republicans enter the 2026 midterms with a narrow House majority of roughly 218-212 seats amid four vacancies, making outcomes highly sensitive to small net shifts. Recent generic congressional ballot polling shows Democrats leading by 5-8 points, consistent with historical patterns where the president's party often loses ground in midterms. Mid-cycle redistricting in states including Texas, California, and Florida has produced competing map adjustments that could add or subtract several seats for each side, while dozens of open seats and 46 identified battlegrounds add volatility. Trader consensus around lower seat totals for Republicans reflects these structural headwinds and engagement advantages for Democrats, though final results hinge on turnout, candidate quality, and any late shifts in the national environment before November.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日190未満 25%
190〜194 16%
195〜199 12%
200～204 11.6%
$285,663 Vol.
$285,663 Vol.
2026/11/03
190未満
25%
190〜194
16%
195〜199
12%
200～204
12%
205～209
11%
210〜214
9%
215〜219
7%
220〜224
1%
225〜229
1%
230以上
3%
190未満 25%
190〜194 16%
195〜199 12%
200～204 11.6%
$285,663 Vol.
$285,663 Vol.
2026/11/03
190未満
$32,408 Vol.
25%
190〜194
$13,637 Vol.
16%
195〜199
$32,609 Vol.
12%
200～204
$24,750 Vol.
12%
205～209
$40,227 Vol.
11%
210〜214
$15,669 Vol.
9%
215〜219
$11,450 Vol.
7%
220〜224
$59,213 Vol.
1%
225〜229
$24,724 Vol.
1%
230以上
$30,975 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Republicans enter the 2026 midterms with a narrow House majority of roughly 218-212 seats amid four vacancies, making outcomes highly sensitive to small net shifts. Recent generic congressional ballot polling shows Democrats leading by 5-8 points, consistent with historical patterns where the president's party often loses ground in midterms. Mid-cycle redistricting in states including Texas, California, and Florida has produced competing map adjustments that could add or subtract several seats for each side, while dozens of open seats and 46 identified battlegrounds add volatility. Trader consensus around lower seat totals for Republicans reflects these structural headwinds and engagement advantages for Democrats, though final results hinge on turnout, candidate quality, and any late shifts in the national environment before November.
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ET
音量
$285,663終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Republicans enter the 2026 midterms with a narrow House majority of roughly 218-212 seats amid four vacancies, making outcomes highly sensitive to small net shifts. Recent generic congressional ballot polling shows Democrats leading by 5-8 points, consistent with historical patterns where the president's party often loses ground in midterms. Mid-cycle redistricting in states including Texas, California, and Florida has produced competing map adjustments that could add or subtract several seats for each side, while dozens of open seats and 46 identified battlegrounds add volatility. Trader consensus around lower seat totals for Republicans reflects these structural headwinds and engagement advantages for Democrats, though final results hinge on turnout, candidate quality, and any late shifts in the national environment before November.
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$285,663終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republicans enter the 2026 midterms with a narrow House majority of roughly 218-212 seats amid four vacancies, making outcomes highly sensitive to small net shifts. Recent generic congressional ballot polling shows Democrats leading by 5-8 points, consistent with historical patterns where the president's party often loses ground in midterms. Mid-cycle redistricting in states including Texas, California, and Florida has produced competing map adjustments that could add or subtract several seats for each side, while dozens of open seats and 46 identified battlegrounds add volatility. Trader consensus around lower seat totals for Republicans reflects these structural headwinds and engagement advantages for Democrats, though final results hinge on turnout, candidate quality, and any late shifts in the national environment before November.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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