**Bipartisan proposals on frontier AI oversight, incident reporting, independent audits, and emergency shutdown capabilities have advanced in House committees and seen multiple introductions through mid-2026, yet none have cleared both chambers amid persistent divisions over state preemption, innovation impacts, and enforcement scope.** Recent cybersecurity incidents involving advanced models prompted targeted bills such as the AI Kill Switch Act and FRONTIER Act components, but legislative progress has stalled short of enactment, with the administration favoring voluntary frameworks instead. States including California, New York, and Illinois have filled gaps with their own mandatory disclosure and audit rules. Traders price the 89% likelihood of no federal AI safety bill before 2027 on Congress’s repeated inability to reconcile these issues ahead of midterms and competing priorities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
11% 確率
$101,934 Vol.
$101,934 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
11% 確率
$101,934 Vol.
$101,934 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. **Bipartisan proposals on frontier AI oversight, incident reporting, independent audits, and emergency shutdown capabilities have advanced in House committees and seen multiple introductions through mid-2026, yet none have cleared both chambers amid persistent divisions over state preemption, innovation impacts, and enforcement scope.** Recent cybersecurity incidents involving advanced models prompted targeted bills such as the AI Kill Switch Act and FRONTIER Act components, but legislative progress has stalled short of enactment, with the administration favoring voluntary frameworks instead. States including California, New York, and Illinois have filled gaps with their own mandatory disclosure and audit rules. Traders price the 89% likelihood of no federal AI safety bill before 2027 on Congress’s repeated inability to reconcile these issues ahead of midterms and competing priorities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ET
音量
$101,934終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. **Bipartisan proposals on frontier AI oversight, incident reporting, independent audits, and emergency shutdown capabilities have advanced in House committees and seen multiple introductions through mid-2026, yet none have cleared both chambers amid persistent divisions over state preemption, innovation impacts, and enforcement scope.** Recent cybersecurity incidents involving advanced models prompted targeted bills such as the AI Kill Switch Act and FRONTIER Act components, but legislative progress has stalled short of enactment, with the administration favoring voluntary frameworks instead. States including California, New York, and Illinois have filled gaps with their own mandatory disclosure and audit rules. Traders price the 89% likelihood of no federal AI safety bill before 2027 on Congress’s repeated inability to reconcile these issues ahead of midterms and competing priorities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$101,934終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...**Bipartisan proposals on frontier AI oversight, incident reporting, independent audits, and emergency shutdown capabilities have advanced in House committees and seen multiple introductions through mid-2026, yet none have cleared both chambers amid persistent divisions over state preemption, innovation impacts, and enforcement scope.** Recent cybersecurity incidents involving advanced models prompted targeted bills such as the AI Kill Switch Act and FRONTIER Act components, but legislative progress has stalled short of enactment, with the administration favoring voluntary frameworks instead. States including California, New York, and Illinois have filled gaps with their own mandatory disclosure and audit rules. Traders price the 89% likelihood of no federal AI safety bill before 2027 on Congress’s repeated inability to reconcile these issues ahead of midterms and competing priorities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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