Recent diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran have centered on a proposed one-page memorandum to end hostilities, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and establish a 30-day window for deeper nuclear discussions, with Iran still reviewing the framework as of mid-May 2026. Core disagreements persist over uranium enrichment limits, verification measures, and sanctions relief, even as President Trump signaled possible flexibility on a 20-year moratorium rather than a permanent halt. These unresolved issues, combined with the brief timeline to May 31 and the history of stalled rounds in prior months, underpin the trader consensus reflected in the 92 percent probability against a comprehensive nuclear agreement by the deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$666,901 Vol.
$666,901 Vol.
2026/05/31
$666,901 Vol.
$666,901 Vol.
2026/05/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran have centered on a proposed one-page memorandum to end hostilities, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and establish a 30-day window for deeper nuclear discussions, with Iran still reviewing the framework as of mid-May 2026. Core disagreements persist over uranium enrichment limits, verification measures, and sanctions relief, even as President Trump signaled possible flexibility on a 20-year moratorium rather than a permanent halt. These unresolved issues, combined with the brief timeline to May 31 and the history of stalled rounds in prior months, underpin the trader consensus reflected in the 92 percent probability against a comprehensive nuclear agreement by the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
マーケット開始日： Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ET
音量
$666,901終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran have centered on a proposed one-page memorandum to end hostilities, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and establish a 30-day window for deeper nuclear discussions, with Iran still reviewing the framework as of mid-May 2026. Core disagreements persist over uranium enrichment limits, verification measures, and sanctions relief, even as President Trump signaled possible flexibility on a 20-year moratorium rather than a permanent halt. These unresolved issues, combined with the brief timeline to May 31 and the history of stalled rounds in prior months, underpin the trader consensus reflected in the 92 percent probability against a comprehensive nuclear agreement by the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
音量
$666,901終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran have centered on a proposed one-page memorandum to end hostilities, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and establish a 30-day window for deeper nuclear discussions, with Iran still reviewing the framework as of mid-May 2026. Core disagreements persist over uranium enrichment limits, verification measures, and sanctions relief, even as President Trump signaled possible flexibility on a 20-year moratorium rather than a permanent halt. These unresolved issues, combined with the brief timeline to May 31 and the history of stalled rounds in prior months, underpin the trader consensus reflected in the 92 percent probability against a comprehensive nuclear agreement by the deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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