Current seismic monitoring by the USGS shows only moderate events in California during 2026, with the largest reaching magnitude 5.6 near Redwood Valley in June and smaller swarms or aftershocks thereafter, well below the 7.0 threshold. Annual probabilities for a magnitude 7.0+ quake statewide remain low based on UCERF3 and historical recurrence intervals along major faults like the San Andreas, supporting the market's strong "No" consensus with roughly four months left in the year. While long-term 30-year forecasts indicate near-certainty of at least one such event, short-term conditions lack the stress accumulation or foreshock patterns that would elevate near-term risk. An unexpected rupture on a locked fault segment remains possible but statistically improbable without new monitoring signals.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日カリフォルニア州では、2026年にマグニチュード7.0以上の地震が発生しますか？
カリフォルニア州では、2026年にマグニチュード7.0以上の地震が発生しますか？
3% 確率
新規
新規
2027/01/01
3% 確率
新規
新規
2027/01/01
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable. Current seismic monitoring by the USGS shows only moderate events in California during 2026, with the largest reaching magnitude 5.6 near Redwood Valley in June and smaller swarms or aftershocks thereafter, well below the 7.0 threshold. Annual probabilities for a magnitude 7.0+ quake statewide remain low based on UCERF3 and historical recurrence intervals along major faults like the San Andreas, supporting the market's strong "No" consensus with roughly four months left in the year. While long-term 30-year forecasts indicate near-certainty of at least one such event, short-term conditions lack the stress accumulation or foreshock patterns that would elevate near-term risk. An unexpected rupture on a locked fault segment remains possible but statistically improbable without new monitoring signals.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable.
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable.
マーケット開始日： Jul 24, 2026, 2:32 PM ET
音量
$3,181終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jul 24, 2026, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable. Current seismic monitoring by the USGS shows only moderate events in California during 2026, with the largest reaching magnitude 5.6 near Redwood Valley in June and smaller swarms or aftershocks thereafter, well below the 7.0 threshold. Annual probabilities for a magnitude 7.0+ quake statewide remain low based on UCERF3 and historical recurrence intervals along major faults like the San Andreas, supporting the market's strong "No" consensus with roughly four months left in the year. While long-term 30-year forecasts indicate near-certainty of at least one such event, short-term conditions lack the stress accumulation or foreshock patterns that would elevate near-term risk. An unexpected rupture on a locked fault segment remains possible but statistically improbable without new monitoring signals.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable.
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable.
音量
$3,181終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jul 24, 2026, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Current seismic monitoring by the USGS shows only moderate events in California during 2026, with the largest reaching magnitude 5.6 near Redwood Valley in June and smaller swarms or aftershocks thereafter, well below the 7.0 threshold. Annual probabilities for a magnitude 7.0+ quake statewide remain low based on UCERF3 and historical recurrence intervals along major faults like the San Andreas, supporting the market's strong "No" consensus with roughly four months left in the year. While long-term 30-year forecasts indicate near-certainty of at least one such event, short-term conditions lack the stress accumulation or foreshock patterns that would elevate near-term risk. An unexpected rupture on a locked fault segment remains possible but statistically improbable without new monitoring signals.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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外部リンクに注意してください。
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