Traders assign a 99.7% implied probability that China will not invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the brief remaining window and absence of observable mobilization for a large-scale amphibious operation. Chinese military activity around the island in recent weeks has remained at baseline levels, with August 2026 aerial sorties notably lower than prior periods and focused on routine patrols, coast guard presence, and blockade-oriented exercises rather than invasion staging. Taiwan’s defense assessments continue to highlight Beijing’s gray-zone tactics and long-term preparations while noting gaps in immediate assault capacity. This market pricing aligns with the logistical and operational realities of cross-strait conflict, though sudden escalatory signals or miscalculations in the final days could theoretically shift dynamics before resolution.