**The unanimous Senate resolution passed on July 29, 2026, opposing any pardon or clemency for Ghislaine Maxwell stands as the clearest recent signal reinforcing trader expectations.** This bipartisan measure, introduced earlier in the year and advanced ahead of related confirmation proceedings, places the full Senate on record against executive relief tied to her sex-trafficking conviction. President Trump has repeatedly declined to rule out reviewing the matter or consulting the Department of Justice, yet he has offered no affirmative signals of intent, and the acting attorney general has stated no recommendation for clemency would be made. Maxwell’s legal team continues to pursue relief, but the combination of institutional opposition, the case’s sensitivity involving minors, and absence of momentum have kept implied probabilities for a pardon by the end of 2026 near single digits.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
7% 確率
$745,033 Vol.
$745,033 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
7% 確率
$745,033 Vol.
$745,033 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**The unanimous Senate resolution passed on July 29, 2026, opposing any pardon or clemency for Ghislaine Maxwell stands as the clearest recent signal reinforcing trader expectations.** This bipartisan measure, introduced earlier in the year and advanced ahead of related confirmation proceedings, places the full Senate on record against executive relief tied to her sex-trafficking conviction. President Trump has repeatedly declined to rule out reviewing the matter or consulting the Department of Justice, yet he has offered no affirmative signals of intent, and the acting attorney general has stated no recommendation for clemency would be made. Maxwell’s legal team continues to pursue relief, but the combination of institutional opposition, the case’s sensitivity involving minors, and absence of momentum have kept implied probabilities for a pardon by the end of 2026 near single digits.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jul 23, 2025, 1:17 AM ET
音量
$745,033終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jul 23, 2025, 1:17 AM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**The unanimous Senate resolution passed on July 29, 2026, opposing any pardon or clemency for Ghislaine Maxwell stands as the clearest recent signal reinforcing trader expectations.** This bipartisan measure, introduced earlier in the year and advanced ahead of related confirmation proceedings, places the full Senate on record against executive relief tied to her sex-trafficking conviction. President Trump has repeatedly declined to rule out reviewing the matter or consulting the Department of Justice, yet he has offered no affirmative signals of intent, and the acting attorney general has stated no recommendation for clemency would be made. Maxwell’s legal team continues to pursue relief, but the combination of institutional opposition, the case’s sensitivity involving minors, and absence of momentum have kept implied probabilities for a pardon by the end of 2026 near single digits.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$745,033終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jul 23, 2025, 1:17 AM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...**The unanimous Senate resolution passed on July 29, 2026, opposing any pardon or clemency for Ghislaine Maxwell stands as the clearest recent signal reinforcing trader expectations.** This bipartisan measure, introduced earlier in the year and advanced ahead of related confirmation proceedings, places the full Senate on record against executive relief tied to her sex-trafficking conviction. President Trump has repeatedly declined to rule out reviewing the matter or consulting the Department of Justice, yet he has offered no affirmative signals of intent, and the acting attorney general has stated no recommendation for clemency would be made. Maxwell’s legal team continues to pursue relief, but the combination of institutional opposition, the case’s sensitivity involving minors, and absence of momentum have kept implied probabilities for a pardon by the end of 2026 near single digits.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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