Sustained bipartisan opposition in Congress, including a unanimous Senate resolution against clemency, combined with Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche’s explicit statement that the Justice Department would not recommend a pardon, has anchored trader expectations against any action by President Trump. Maxwell’s federal conviction for sex trafficking minors tied to Jeffrey Epstein carries substantial reputational and political costs, with appeals exhausted after a federal judge rejected her habeas petition in August 2026. Trump has repeatedly described the matter as one he has not considered, while noting he would consult the Department of Justice if approached. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome before the end of 2026 include a post-midterm decision in the lame-duck period, new cooperation from Maxwell yielding significant information, or an unexpected change in administration priorities, though no formal pardon application has advanced through standard channels.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
5% 確率
$759,413 Vol.
$759,413 Vol.
2026/12/31
3.25%を獲得
はい
5% 確率
$759,413 Vol.
$759,413 Vol.
2026/12/31
3.25%を獲得
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Sustained bipartisan opposition in Congress, including a unanimous Senate resolution against clemency, combined with Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche’s explicit statement that the Justice Department would not recommend a pardon, has anchored trader expectations against any action by President Trump. Maxwell’s federal conviction for sex trafficking minors tied to Jeffrey Epstein carries substantial reputational and political costs, with appeals exhausted after a federal judge rejected her habeas petition in August 2026. Trump has repeatedly described the matter as one he has not considered, while noting he would consult the Department of Justice if approached. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome before the end of 2026 include a post-midterm decision in the lame-duck period, new cooperation from Maxwell yielding significant information, or an unexpected change in administration priorities, though no formal pardon application has advanced through standard channels.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jul 23, 2025, 1:17 AM ET
音量
$759,413終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jul 23, 2025, 1:17 AM ETリゾルバー
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Sustained bipartisan opposition in Congress, including a unanimous Senate resolution against clemency, combined with Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche’s explicit statement that the Justice Department would not recommend a pardon, has anchored trader expectations against any action by President Trump. Maxwell’s federal conviction for sex trafficking minors tied to Jeffrey Epstein carries substantial reputational and political costs, with appeals exhausted after a federal judge rejected her habeas petition in August 2026. Trump has repeatedly described the matter as one he has not considered, while noting he would consult the Department of Justice if approached. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome before the end of 2026 include a post-midterm decision in the lame-duck period, new cooperation from Maxwell yielding significant information, or an unexpected change in administration priorities, though no formal pardon application has advanced through standard channels.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$759,413終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jul 23, 2025, 1:17 AM ETリゾルバー
0x157Ce2d67...Sustained bipartisan opposition in Congress, including a unanimous Senate resolution against clemency, combined with Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche’s explicit statement that the Justice Department would not recommend a pardon, has anchored trader expectations against any action by President Trump. Maxwell’s federal conviction for sex trafficking minors tied to Jeffrey Epstein carries substantial reputational and political costs, with appeals exhausted after a federal judge rejected her habeas petition in August 2026. Trump has repeatedly described the matter as one he has not considered, while noting he would consult the Department of Justice if approached. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome before the end of 2026 include a post-midterm decision in the lame-duck period, new cooperation from Maxwell yielding significant information, or an unexpected change in administration priorities, though no formal pardon application has advanced through standard channels.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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