Latest opinion polls ahead of the 17 May Andalusian regional election project the PSOE-A to win 26–28 seats in the 109-seat parliament, reflecting a vote share near 22–24 percent. These surveys, including aggregates from El País, Sigma Dos and Target Point published in the first half of May, show the party trailing the PP by roughly 20 points and on course for its weakest result in the region’s modern history. The current trader consensus placing 27–29 seats at 52.5 percent aligns closely with this polling range, while lower brackets capture the smaller chance of an unusually strong left-wing turnout on election day. With the campaign now in the final 24-hour silence period, no further major developments are expected to shift the seat outlook before votes are counted.