Incumbent Mike Thompson seeks his 15th term in California's 4th Congressional District, a solidly Democratic seat redrawn after the 2020 census and further adjusted for 2026, where he faces a primary challenge from Eric Jones, a venture capitalist and nonprofit executive who has raised significant funds and secured endorsements from progressive groups. The June 2 top-two primary features a crowded field that includes multiple Republican candidates such as Sharon Brown and Mandy Ghusar, along with other Democrats and an independent, raising the possibility of vote splitting that could determine which two candidates advance to the general election. Thompson's long tenure, moderate record, and established campaign infrastructure position him as the frontrunner, while Jones's financial edge and mobilization efforts among younger voters create the main point of competition in the coming weeks.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$30,145 거래량
마이크 톰슨
97%
Eric Jones
90%
히스 펄커슨
11%
John Wesley Tyler
8%
Trevor Merrell
7%
로리 맥켄지
4%
Sharon Brown
2%
맨디 구사르
<1%
$30,145 거래량
마이크 톰슨
97%
Eric Jones
90%
히스 펄커슨
11%
John Wesley Tyler
8%
Trevor Merrell
7%
로리 맥켄지
4%
Sharon Brown
2%
맨디 구사르
<1%
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
마켓 개설일: Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Incumbent Mike Thompson seeks his 15th term in California's 4th Congressional District, a solidly Democratic seat redrawn after the 2020 census and further adjusted for 2026, where he faces a primary challenge from Eric Jones, a venture capitalist and nonprofit executive who has raised significant funds and secured endorsements from progressive groups. The June 2 top-two primary features a crowded field that includes multiple Republican candidates such as Sharon Brown and Mandy Ghusar, along with other Democrats and an independent, raising the possibility of vote splitting that could determine which two candidates advance to the general election. Thompson's long tenure, moderate record, and established campaign infrastructure position him as the frontrunner, while Jones's financial edge and mobilization efforts among younger voters create the main point of competition in the coming weeks.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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