Incumbent Representative Mike Thompson seeks renomination in California's 4th congressional district primary on June 2, facing Democratic challenger Eric Jones alongside a crowded Republican field that includes Sharon Brown, Mandy Ghusar, and Jimih Jones. The nonpartisan top-two format advances the two highest vote-getters to the November general, where the district's strong Democratic tilt and Thompson's 28-year incumbency create structural advantages. Candidate filing closed in March with no late entries or major endorsements reported since, leaving fundraising records and voter turnout in the Napa Valley and North Bay counties as key variables. Historical patterns of low primary turnout and fragmented opposition support consolidation around the sitting member ahead of the general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$30,130 거래량
마이크 톰슨
97%
Eric Jones
90%
히스 펄커슨
11%
John Wesley Tyler
8%
Trevor Merrell
6%
로리 맥켄지
5%
Sharon Brown
2%
맨디 구사르
<1%
$30,130 거래량
마이크 톰슨
97%
Eric Jones
90%
히스 펄커슨
11%
John Wesley Tyler
8%
Trevor Merrell
6%
로리 맥켄지
5%
Sharon Brown
2%
맨디 구사르
<1%
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
마켓 개설일: Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Incumbent Representative Mike Thompson seeks renomination in California's 4th congressional district primary on June 2, facing Democratic challenger Eric Jones alongside a crowded Republican field that includes Sharon Brown, Mandy Ghusar, and Jimih Jones. The nonpartisan top-two format advances the two highest vote-getters to the November general, where the district's strong Democratic tilt and Thompson's 28-year incumbency create structural advantages. Candidate filing closed in March with no late entries or major endorsements reported since, leaving fundraising records and voter turnout in the Napa Valley and North Bay counties as key variables. Historical patterns of low primary turnout and fragmented opposition support consolidation around the sitting member ahead of the general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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