Incumbent Rep. Mark DeSaulnier (D) dominates trader consensus for CA-10 with Democratic Party odds at 93.5%, driven by the district's safe Democratic status (D+18 Cook PVI, Harris 65% in 2024 presidential vote) and his overwhelming fundraising edge ($656,000 cash on hand as of late March vs. under $20,000 for top challengers). In the upcoming June 2 top-two primary, DeSaulnier faces three fellow Democrats and three Republicans, including 2024 foe Katherine Piccinini, but historical margins (66.5% win in 2024) underscore low competitiveness. Scenarios to shift odds include a primary upset yielding a weakened Democratic nominee, DeSaulnier scandal or health issue, or a national Republican midterm surge.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$12,353 거래량
$12,353 거래량
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
7%
$12,353 거래량
$12,353 거래량
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
$6,730 거래량
94%
Republican Party
$5,623 거래량
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Mark DeSaulnier (D) dominates trader consensus for CA-10 with Democratic Party odds at 93.5%, driven by the district's safe Democratic status (D+18 Cook PVI, Harris 65% in 2024 presidential vote) and his overwhelming fundraising edge ($656,000 cash on hand as of late March vs. under $20,000 for top challengers). In the upcoming June 2 top-two primary, DeSaulnier faces three fellow Democrats and three Republicans, including 2024 foe Katherine Piccinini, but historical margins (66.5% win in 2024) underscore low competitiveness. Scenarios to shift odds include a primary upset yielding a weakened Democratic nominee, DeSaulnier scandal or health issue, or a national Republican midterm surge.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
거래량
$12,353종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Mark DeSaulnier (D) dominates trader consensus for CA-10 with Democratic Party odds at 93.5%, driven by the district's safe Democratic status (D+18 Cook PVI, Harris 65% in 2024 presidential vote) and his overwhelming fundraising edge ($656,000 cash on hand as of late March vs. under $20,000 for top challengers). In the upcoming June 2 top-two primary, DeSaulnier faces three fellow Democrats and three Republicans, including 2024 foe Katherine Piccinini, but historical margins (66.5% win in 2024) underscore low competitiveness. Scenarios to shift odds include a primary upset yielding a weakened Democratic nominee, DeSaulnier scandal or health issue, or a national Republican midterm surge.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$12,353종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Mark DeSaulnier (D) dominates trader consensus for CA-10 with Democratic Party odds at 93.5%, driven by the district's safe Democratic status (D+18 Cook PVI, Harris 65% in 2024 presidential vote) and his overwhelming fundraising edge ($656,000 cash on hand as of late March vs. under $20,000 for top challengers). In the upcoming June 2 top-two primary, DeSaulnier faces three fellow Democrats and three Republicans, including 2024 foe Katherine Piccinini, but historical margins (66.5% win in 2024) underscore low competitiveness. Scenarios to shift odds include a primary upset yielding a weakened Democratic nominee, DeSaulnier scandal or health issue, or a national Republican midterm surge.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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