Trader consensus assigns a 92.5% market-implied probability that Costco will hold its $1.50 hot dog price steady through 2026, anchored by the company’s decades-long policy of treating the food-court item as a loss leader that sustains high membership renewal rates and foot traffic. Recent earnings releases show resilient same-store sales and gross margins above 10% without any need to adjust this signature offering, while executive commentary continues to emphasize competitive positioning over short-term cost recovery. Commodity price stability in proteins and buns further supports the current odds. Still, a sharp spike in input costs or an unexpected management shift could introduce pressure before year-end, though historical patterns and current balance-sheet strength make such a reversal unlikely.