Trader consensus prices "No" at 96.3% for former Rep. Eric Swalwell's arrest by May 31, reflecting the absence of formal charges or an indictment roughly one month after the DOJ opened a probe into early-April sexual assault allegations from five women that prompted his congressional resignation and California governor campaign suspension. No updates on the federal investigation have emerged in May, underscoring typical procedural timelines requiring evidence review, witness interviews, and potential grand jury action before any arrest warrant. Separate scrutiny of decade-old FBI files on his past ties to a suspected Chinese spy has yielded no criminal developments. Realistic shifts could stem from swift new evidence prompting indictment, state-level actions by Los Angeles or New York district attorneys, or accelerated DOJ escalation, though such rapid movement remains unlikely absent major breakthroughs.