The dominant market-implied probability of three consecutive Federal Reserve pauses through June stems from the central bank’s April 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, its third consecutive pause this year. Elevated March 2026 CPI at 3.3% year-over-year, driven largely by surging energy prices amid Middle East tensions, has kept inflation well above the 2% target and reduced the scope for easing. Solid labor-market readings and limited progress on core measures have reinforced trader expectations that the FOMC will maintain its current stance at the June 16-17 meeting. A sharper-than-expected softening in employment data or swift decline in inflation readings could still prompt a reassessment, though recent releases have kept such outcomes at low implied odds.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트동결–동결–동결 97.8%
동결–동결–인하 1.6%
기타 <1%
$1,103,405 거래량
$1,103,405 거래량
2026.06.17
동결–동결–동결
98%
동결–동결–인하
2%
기타
<1%
동결–동결–동결 97.8%
동결–동결–인하 1.6%
기타 <1%
$1,103,405 거래량
$1,103,405 거래량
2026.06.17
동결–동결–동결
$63,166 거래량
98%
동결–동결–인하
$42,231 거래량
2%
기타
$252,666 거래량
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmThe dominant market-implied probability of three consecutive Federal Reserve pauses through June stems from the central bank’s April 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, its third consecutive pause this year. Elevated March 2026 CPI at 3.3% year-over-year, driven largely by surging energy prices amid Middle East tensions, has kept inflation well above the 2% target and reduced the scope for easing. Solid labor-market readings and limited progress on core measures have reinforced trader expectations that the FOMC will maintain its current stance at the June 16-17 meeting. A sharper-than-expected softening in employment data or swift decline in inflation readings could still prompt a reassessment, though recent releases have kept such outcomes at low implied odds.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
마켓 개설일: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
거래량
$1,103,405종료일
2026.06.17마켓 개설일
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmThe dominant market-implied probability of three consecutive Federal Reserve pauses through June stems from the central bank’s April 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, its third consecutive pause this year. Elevated March 2026 CPI at 3.3% year-over-year, driven largely by surging energy prices amid Middle East tensions, has kept inflation well above the 2% target and reduced the scope for easing. Solid labor-market readings and limited progress on core measures have reinforced trader expectations that the FOMC will maintain its current stance at the June 16-17 meeting. A sharper-than-expected softening in employment data or swift decline in inflation readings could still prompt a reassessment, though recent releases have kept such outcomes at low implied odds.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
거래량
$1,103,405종료일
2026.06.17마켓 개설일
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The dominant market-implied probability of three consecutive Federal Reserve pauses through June stems from the central bank’s April 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, its third consecutive pause this year. Elevated March 2026 CPI at 3.3% year-over-year, driven largely by surging energy prices amid Middle East tensions, has kept inflation well above the 2% target and reduced the scope for easing. Solid labor-market readings and limited progress on core measures have reinforced trader expectations that the FOMC will maintain its current stance at the June 16-17 meeting. A sharper-than-expected softening in employment data or swift decline in inflation readings could still prompt a reassessment, though recent releases have kept such outcomes at low implied odds.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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