Polymarket traders overwhelmingly back a 97.5% implied probability for the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds rate target range of 3.50%–3.75% across the March 17–18, April 28–29, and June 16–17 FOMC meetings—already confirmed for the first two—with the June pause driven by persistent inflation pressures from geopolitical tensions like the Iran conflict spiking energy prices, alongside robust April jobs data stabilizing the labor market. Recent hot CPI readings and upward revisions to 2026 inflation forecasts from brokerages like BofA and Goldman Sachs have pushed rate-cut expectations to late 2026 or beyond, solidifying the pause consensus amid elevated Treasury yields. A sharp cooldown in upcoming May CPI or nonfarm payrolls could challenge this, potentially reviving cut odds ahead of June.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트동결–동결–동결 97.5%
동결–동결–인하 1.9%
기타 <1%
$1,091,129 거래량
$1,091,129 거래량
2026.06.17
동결–동결–동결
98%
동결–동결–인하
2%
기타
1%
동결–동결–동결 97.5%
동결–동결–인하 1.9%
기타 <1%
$1,091,129 거래량
$1,091,129 거래량
2026.06.17
동결–동결–동결
$60,383 거래량
98%
동결–동결–인하
$39,767 거래량
2%
기타
$245,637 거래량
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders overwhelmingly back a 97.5% implied probability for the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds rate target range of 3.50%–3.75% across the March 17–18, April 28–29, and June 16–17 FOMC meetings—already confirmed for the first two—with the June pause driven by persistent inflation pressures from geopolitical tensions like the Iran conflict spiking energy prices, alongside robust April jobs data stabilizing the labor market. Recent hot CPI readings and upward revisions to 2026 inflation forecasts from brokerages like BofA and Goldman Sachs have pushed rate-cut expectations to late 2026 or beyond, solidifying the pause consensus amid elevated Treasury yields. A sharp cooldown in upcoming May CPI or nonfarm payrolls could challenge this, potentially reviving cut odds ahead of June.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
마켓 개설일: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
거래량
$1,091,129종료일
2026.06.17마켓 개설일
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders overwhelmingly back a 97.5% implied probability for the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds rate target range of 3.50%–3.75% across the March 17–18, April 28–29, and June 16–17 FOMC meetings—already confirmed for the first two—with the June pause driven by persistent inflation pressures from geopolitical tensions like the Iran conflict spiking energy prices, alongside robust April jobs data stabilizing the labor market. Recent hot CPI readings and upward revisions to 2026 inflation forecasts from brokerages like BofA and Goldman Sachs have pushed rate-cut expectations to late 2026 or beyond, solidifying the pause consensus amid elevated Treasury yields. A sharp cooldown in upcoming May CPI or nonfarm payrolls could challenge this, potentially reviving cut odds ahead of June.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
거래량
$1,091,129종료일
2026.06.17마켓 개설일
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders overwhelmingly back a 97.5% implied probability for the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds rate target range of 3.50%–3.75% across the March 17–18, April 28–29, and June 16–17 FOMC meetings—already confirmed for the first two—with the June pause driven by persistent inflation pressures from geopolitical tensions like the Iran conflict spiking energy prices, alongside robust April jobs data stabilizing the labor market. Recent hot CPI readings and upward revisions to 2026 inflation forecasts from brokerages like BofA and Goldman Sachs have pushed rate-cut expectations to late 2026 or beyond, solidifying the pause consensus amid elevated Treasury yields. A sharp cooldown in upcoming May CPI or nonfarm payrolls could challenge this, potentially reviving cut odds ahead of June.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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