Recent hotter-than-expected April CPI at 3.8% year-over-year and surging PPI readings, driven by elevated energy prices amid the Iran conflict, have modestly lifted market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike by year-end to around 40%. Nevertheless, the central bank's April decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% and the March dot plot's median projection of one 25-basis-point cut still anchor trader consensus against a 2026 hike. Resilient labor market conditions and the Fed's emphasis on data dependence have kept upside inflation risks from crossing the threshold for policy tightening in the near term. Upcoming June FOMC deliberations and fresh CPI releases will serve as key tests for whether persistent price pressures can shift the balance toward higher rates.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$1,103,241 거래량
$1,103,241 거래량
2026.12.09
예
$1,103,241 거래량
$1,103,241 거래량
2026.12.09
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hotter-than-expected April CPI at 3.8% year-over-year and surging PPI readings, driven by elevated energy prices amid the Iran conflict, have modestly lifted market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike by year-end to around 40%. Nevertheless, the central bank's April decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% and the March dot plot's median projection of one 25-basis-point cut still anchor trader consensus against a 2026 hike. Resilient labor market conditions and the Fed's emphasis on data dependence have kept upside inflation risks from crossing the threshold for policy tightening in the near term. Upcoming June FOMC deliberations and fresh CPI releases will serve as key tests for whether persistent price pressures can shift the balance toward higher rates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
거래량
$1,103,241종료일
2026.12.09마켓 개설일
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hotter-than-expected April CPI at 3.8% year-over-year and surging PPI readings, driven by elevated energy prices amid the Iran conflict, have modestly lifted market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike by year-end to around 40%. Nevertheless, the central bank's April decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% and the March dot plot's median projection of one 25-basis-point cut still anchor trader consensus against a 2026 hike. Resilient labor market conditions and the Fed's emphasis on data dependence have kept upside inflation risks from crossing the threshold for policy tightening in the near term. Upcoming June FOMC deliberations and fresh CPI releases will serve as key tests for whether persistent price pressures can shift the balance toward higher rates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$1,103,241종료일
2026.12.09마켓 개설일
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent hotter-than-expected April CPI at 3.8% year-over-year and surging PPI readings, driven by elevated energy prices amid the Iran conflict, have modestly lifted market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike by year-end to around 40%. Nevertheless, the central bank's April decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% and the March dot plot's median projection of one 25-basis-point cut still anchor trader consensus against a 2026 hike. Resilient labor market conditions and the Fed's emphasis on data dependence have kept upside inflation risks from crossing the threshold for policy tightening in the near term. Upcoming June FOMC deliberations and fresh CPI releases will serve as key tests for whether persistent price pressures can shift the balance toward higher rates.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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