Persistent high pressure and above-normal temperature signals from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center are anchoring Miami's July 4 maximum near the seasonal average of 88–90 °F, with model guidance from the National Weather Service favoring afternoon readings of 90–93 °F under mostly sunny skies and light southeasterly flow. Typical July humidity and urban heat-island effects support these values, while the absence of strong onshore winds or convective cooling keeps the upside risk limited to brief spikes near 94 °F. Recent weeks of above-average warmth across South Florida have reinforced trader consensus around the 90–91 °F bin (44 % implied probability), though ensemble spread and any late-day sea-breeze development could still shift the observed high within the 88–93 °F range that dominates market pricing.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Highest temperature in Miami on July 4?
Highest temperature in Miami on July 4?
90-91°F 50%
92-93°F 32%
88-89°F 16%
94-95°F 2.1%
신규
$14,181 거래량
신규
$14,181 거래량
2026.07.04
79°F or below
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
<1%
84-85°F
1%
86-87°F
2%
88-89°F
16%
90-91°F
50%
92-93°F
32%
94-95°F
2%
96-97°F
1%
98°F or higher
<1%
90-91°F 50%
92-93°F 32%
88-89°F 16%
94-95°F 2.1%
신규
$14,181 거래량
신규
$14,181 거래량
2026.07.04
79°F or below
$286 거래량
<1%
80-81°F
$715 거래량
<1%
82-83°F
$666 거래량
<1%
84-85°F
$1,027 거래량
1%
86-87°F
$647 거래량
2%
88-89°F
$1,348 거래량
16%
90-91°F
$3,338 거래량
50%
92-93°F
$3,557 거래량
32%
94-95°F
$1,349 거래량
2%
96-97°F
$636 거래량
1%
98°F or higher
$612 거래량
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent high pressure and above-normal temperature signals from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center are anchoring Miami's July 4 maximum near the seasonal average of 88–90 °F, with model guidance from the National Weather Service favoring afternoon readings of 90–93 °F under mostly sunny skies and light southeasterly flow. Typical July humidity and urban heat-island effects support these values, while the absence of strong onshore winds or convective cooling keeps the upside risk limited to brief spikes near 94 °F. Recent weeks of above-average warmth across South Florida have reinforced trader consensus around the 90–91 °F bin (44 % implied probability), though ensemble spread and any late-day sea-breeze development could still shift the observed high within the 88–93 °F range that dominates market pricing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
마켓 개설일: Jul 2, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
거래량
$14,181종료일
2026.07.04마켓 개설일
Jul 2, 2026, 9:02 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent high pressure and above-normal temperature signals from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center are anchoring Miami's July 4 maximum near the seasonal average of 88–90 °F, with model guidance from the National Weather Service favoring afternoon readings of 90–93 °F under mostly sunny skies and light southeasterly flow. Typical July humidity and urban heat-island effects support these values, while the absence of strong onshore winds or convective cooling keeps the upside risk limited to brief spikes near 94 °F. Recent weeks of above-average warmth across South Florida have reinforced trader consensus around the 90–91 °F bin (44 % implied probability), though ensemble spread and any late-day sea-breeze development could still shift the observed high within the 88–93 °F range that dominates market pricing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
거래량
$14,181종료일
2026.07.04마켓 개설일
Jul 2, 2026, 9:02 PM ETPersistent high pressure and above-normal temperature signals from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center are anchoring Miami's July 4 maximum near the seasonal average of 88–90 °F, with model guidance from the National Weather Service favoring afternoon readings of 90–93 °F under mostly sunny skies and light southeasterly flow. Typical July humidity and urban heat-island effects support these values, while the absence of strong onshore winds or convective cooling keeps the upside risk limited to brief spikes near 94 °F. Recent weeks of above-average warmth across South Florida have reinforced trader consensus around the 90–91 °F bin (44 % implied probability), though ensemble spread and any late-day sea-breeze development could still shift the observed high within the 88–93 °F range that dominates market pricing.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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