A strengthening high-pressure ridge over the Kanto region, according to the latest Japan Meteorological Agency forecast models, is positioning traders to favor a daily high of 28°C or higher in Tokyo on May 18 at 79% implied probability. Clear skies combined with light southerly flow and strong afternoon solar insolation are expected to drive surface heating well above the seasonal May average of 22–25°C. Model consensus shows limited disagreement on peak temperatures, with 27°C capturing the remaining meaningful share at 20.5%. Historical analogs for mid-May under similar synoptic patterns support occasional excursions into the upper 20s, though any late-day cloud development or wind shift could cap the maximum near the next-closest outcome.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트5월 18일 도쿄에서 가장 높은 기온?
5월 18일 도쿄에서 가장 높은 기온?
28°C or higher 86%
27°C 14%
26°C 1.7%
18°C or below <1%
신규
$55,738 거래량
신규
$55,738 거래량
2026.05.18
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
2%
27°C
14%
28°C or higher
86%
28°C or higher 86%
27°C 14%
26°C 1.7%
18°C or below <1%
신규
$55,738 거래량
신규
$55,738 거래량
2026.05.18
18°C or below
$3,106 거래량
<1%
19°C
$1,432 거래량
<1%
20°C
$1,081 거래량
<1%
21°C
$1,264 거래량
<1%
22°C
$1,918 거래량
<1%
23°C
$3,411 거래량
<1%
24°C
$20,321 거래량
<1%
25°C
$7,186 거래량
<1%
26°C
$6,165 거래량
2%
27°C
$4,162 거래량
14%
28°C or higher
$5,714 거래량
86%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.A strengthening high-pressure ridge over the Kanto region, according to the latest Japan Meteorological Agency forecast models, is positioning traders to favor a daily high of 28°C or higher in Tokyo on May 18 at 79% implied probability. Clear skies combined with light southerly flow and strong afternoon solar insolation are expected to drive surface heating well above the seasonal May average of 22–25°C. Model consensus shows limited disagreement on peak temperatures, with 27°C capturing the remaining meaningful share at 20.5%. Historical analogs for mid-May under similar synoptic patterns support occasional excursions into the upper 20s, though any late-day cloud development or wind shift could cap the maximum near the next-closest outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
마켓 개설일: May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
거래량
$55,738종료일
2026.05.18마켓 개설일
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.A strengthening high-pressure ridge over the Kanto region, according to the latest Japan Meteorological Agency forecast models, is positioning traders to favor a daily high of 28°C or higher in Tokyo on May 18 at 79% implied probability. Clear skies combined with light southerly flow and strong afternoon solar insolation are expected to drive surface heating well above the seasonal May average of 22–25°C. Model consensus shows limited disagreement on peak temperatures, with 27°C capturing the remaining meaningful share at 20.5%. Historical analogs for mid-May under similar synoptic patterns support occasional excursions into the upper 20s, though any late-day cloud development or wind shift could cap the maximum near the next-closest outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
거래량
$55,738종료일
2026.05.18마켓 개설일
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETA strengthening high-pressure ridge over the Kanto region, according to the latest Japan Meteorological Agency forecast models, is positioning traders to favor a daily high of 28°C or higher in Tokyo on May 18 at 79% implied probability. Clear skies combined with light southerly flow and strong afternoon solar insolation are expected to drive surface heating well above the seasonal May average of 22–25°C. Model consensus shows limited disagreement on peak temperatures, with 27°C capturing the remaining meaningful share at 20.5%. Historical analogs for mid-May under similar synoptic patterns support occasional excursions into the upper 20s, though any late-day cloud development or wind shift could cap the maximum near the next-closest outcome.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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