Recent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models show wide uncertainty in Shanghai’s minimum temperature on May 21, with possible outcomes ranging from cool advection behind a weak frontal boundary to warmer southerly flow tied to early East Asian monsoon influences. This bimodal spread explains why market-implied odds currently price the extremes of 15 °C or below and 25 °C or higher nearly equally at 41 %, while narrower bins around the climatological 18–20 °C range command lower probabilities. Shanghai’s subtropical location and urban heat-island effects amplify sensitivity to small shifts in 850 hPa winds and boundary-layer moisture. The next high-resolution model runs and updated China Meteorological Administration guidance, expected within 24 hours, will likely refine these probabilities ahead of the May 20–21 verification window.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트5월 21일 상하이에서 최저 기온?
5월 21일 상하이에서 최저 기온?
25°C 이상 41%
15°C 이하 40%
19°C 19%
18℃ 19%
신규
신규
2026.05.21
15°C 이하
40%
16°C
17%
17°C
14%
18℃
19%
19°C
19%
20°C
18%
21°C
16%
22°C
9%
23°C
12%
24°C
11%
25°C 이상
41%
25°C 이상 41%
15°C 이하 40%
19°C 19%
18℃ 19%
신규
신규
2026.05.21
15°C 이하
$5 거래량
40%
16°C
$0 거래량
17%
17°C
$0 거래량
14%
18℃
$0 거래량
19%
19°C
$0 거래량
19%
20°C
$0 거래량
18%
21°C
$0 거래량
16%
22°C
$0 거래량
9%
23°C
$0 거래량
12%
24°C
$0 거래량
11%
25°C 이상
$20 거래량
41%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models show wide uncertainty in Shanghai’s minimum temperature on May 21, with possible outcomes ranging from cool advection behind a weak frontal boundary to warmer southerly flow tied to early East Asian monsoon influences. This bimodal spread explains why market-implied odds currently price the extremes of 15 °C or below and 25 °C or higher nearly equally at 41 %, while narrower bins around the climatological 18–20 °C range command lower probabilities. Shanghai’s subtropical location and urban heat-island effects amplify sensitivity to small shifts in 850 hPa winds and boundary-layer moisture. The next high-resolution model runs and updated China Meteorological Administration guidance, expected within 24 hours, will likely refine these probabilities ahead of the May 20–21 verification window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
마켓 개설일: May 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
거래량
$25종료일
2026.05.21마켓 개설일
May 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models show wide uncertainty in Shanghai’s minimum temperature on May 21, with possible outcomes ranging from cool advection behind a weak frontal boundary to warmer southerly flow tied to early East Asian monsoon influences. This bimodal spread explains why market-implied odds currently price the extremes of 15 °C or below and 25 °C or higher nearly equally at 41 %, while narrower bins around the climatological 18–20 °C range command lower probabilities. Shanghai’s subtropical location and urban heat-island effects amplify sensitivity to small shifts in 850 hPa winds and boundary-layer moisture. The next high-resolution model runs and updated China Meteorological Administration guidance, expected within 24 hours, will likely refine these probabilities ahead of the May 20–21 verification window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
거래량
$25종료일
2026.05.21마켓 개설일
May 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ETRecent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models show wide uncertainty in Shanghai’s minimum temperature on May 21, with possible outcomes ranging from cool advection behind a weak frontal boundary to warmer southerly flow tied to early East Asian monsoon influences. This bimodal spread explains why market-implied odds currently price the extremes of 15 °C or below and 25 °C or higher nearly equally at 41 %, while narrower bins around the climatological 18–20 °C range command lower probabilities. Shanghai’s subtropical location and urban heat-island effects amplify sensitivity to small shifts in 850 hPa winds and boundary-layer moisture. The next high-resolution model runs and updated China Meteorological Administration guidance, expected within 24 hours, will likely refine these probabilities ahead of the May 20–21 verification window.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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