Recent short-range numerical weather prediction models from global and regional ensembles show Wuhan’s May 17 peak temperature most likely settling near 28–29 °C, producing the tight 40 % and 34.5 % market-implied probabilities. Variable mid-level cloud cover and light southerly flow under a weakening subtropical ridge are limiting daytime heating, while urban heat-island effects and low-level moisture keep the diurnal maximum from climbing further. Model spread remains modest, with most runs confining the high between 27 °C and 30 °C; any late-day clearing or reduced humidity could push readings toward the upper end of that range. Updated 00Z and 12Z model cycles tomorrow morning will provide the final guidance ahead of official China Meteorological Administration observations used for resolution.