Recent light rain and persistent cloud cover over central China have suppressed daytime heating in Wuhan, anchoring short-range model consensus around a peak of 25–26°C for May 18. National meteorological guidance shows moist southerly flow and increasing low-level moisture that favors widespread overcast conditions and scattered showers, limiting solar insolation and keeping maximum temperatures below seasonal normals near 28°C. Ensemble spreads remain modest, with slight disagreements on exact cloud thickness and timing of any brief clearing that could allow a brief spike to 27°C. Traders have therefore clustered probabilities on the 25–26°C outcomes, reflecting both the current synoptic setup and limited upside potential from further model revisions before the daily high is recorded.