Ensemble forecasts from Spain’s AEMET and the ECMWF place Madrid’s May 16 maximum near 20.5–21 °C beneath a strengthening high-pressure ridge, with northerly flow and residual boundary-layer moisture from prior showers limiting daytime heating below the mid-May climatological mean of 22 °C. Model spread—GFS runs slightly warmer while ECMWF retains cooler soil-moisture effects—explains why market-implied odds cluster so tightly between 20 °C and 21 °C. Diurnal peak timing, cloud-cover evolution, and precise station readings at Madrid-Barajas will determine resolution; afternoon AEMET updates and final 24-hour observations remain the key near-term catalysts.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Highest temperature in Madrid on May 16?
Highest temperature in Madrid on May 16?
21°C 40%
20°C 37%
22°C 13%
19°C 10%
$34,426 거래량
$34,426 거래량
2026.05.16
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
2%
19°C
10%
20°C
37%
21°C
40%
22°C
13%
23°C
2%
24°C
1%
25°C or higher
1%
21°C 40%
20°C 37%
22°C 13%
19°C 10%
$34,426 거래량
$34,426 거래량
2026.05.16
15°C or below
$3,699 거래량
<1%
16°C
$4,050 거래량
<1%
17°C
$5,822 거래량
<1%
18°C
$4,070 거래량
2%
19°C
$2,389 거래량
10%
20°C
$2,260 거래량
37%
21°C
$3,174 거래량
40%
22°C
$2,007 거래량
13%
23°C
$2,068 거래량
2%
24°C
$2,812 거래량
1%
25°C or higher
$2,094 거래량
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Ensemble forecasts from Spain’s AEMET and the ECMWF place Madrid’s May 16 maximum near 20.5–21 °C beneath a strengthening high-pressure ridge, with northerly flow and residual boundary-layer moisture from prior showers limiting daytime heating below the mid-May climatological mean of 22 °C. Model spread—GFS runs slightly warmer while ECMWF retains cooler soil-moisture effects—explains why market-implied odds cluster so tightly between 20 °C and 21 °C. Diurnal peak timing, cloud-cover evolution, and precise station readings at Madrid-Barajas will determine resolution; afternoon AEMET updates and final 24-hour observations remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
마켓 개설일: May 14, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
거래량
$34,426종료일
2026.05.16마켓 개설일
May 14, 2026, 12:07 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Ensemble forecasts from Spain’s AEMET and the ECMWF place Madrid’s May 16 maximum near 20.5–21 °C beneath a strengthening high-pressure ridge, with northerly flow and residual boundary-layer moisture from prior showers limiting daytime heating below the mid-May climatological mean of 22 °C. Model spread—GFS runs slightly warmer while ECMWF retains cooler soil-moisture effects—explains why market-implied odds cluster so tightly between 20 °C and 21 °C. Diurnal peak timing, cloud-cover evolution, and precise station readings at Madrid-Barajas will determine resolution; afternoon AEMET updates and final 24-hour observations remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
거래량
$34,426종료일
2026.05.16마켓 개설일
May 14, 2026, 12:07 AM ETEnsemble forecasts from Spain’s AEMET and the ECMWF place Madrid’s May 16 maximum near 20.5–21 °C beneath a strengthening high-pressure ridge, with northerly flow and residual boundary-layer moisture from prior showers limiting daytime heating below the mid-May climatological mean of 22 °C. Model spread—GFS runs slightly warmer while ECMWF retains cooler soil-moisture effects—explains why market-implied odds cluster so tightly between 20 °C and 21 °C. Diurnal peak timing, cloud-cover evolution, and precise station readings at Madrid-Barajas will determine resolution; afternoon AEMET updates and final 24-hour observations remain the key near-term catalysts.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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