Traders have strongly converged on a 25°C high for Hong Kong on May 16, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from regional meteorological models showing stable subtropical high pressure with light southerly flow and minimal cloud development. These conditions are expected to produce a modest diurnal temperature range typical of mid-May, when climatological averages sit near 26–28°C but current observations and short-range guidance indicate slightly suppressed maxima. The implied probability reflects broad agreement across model runs on peak readings remaining at or just below 25°C, with low uncertainty in boundary-layer moisture and wind patterns. Only a rapid increase in humidity or an unforecasted frontal passage would realistically push readings higher, though such shifts remain outside the primary forecast envelope through the afternoon observation window.