Recent KMA and ensemble model guidance points to a mild springtime regime over the Korean Peninsula, with southerly flow and limited nocturnal cooling likely keeping Seoul’s May 20 minimum near or above the 12–16 °C climatological range for mid-May. Persistent high pressure and reduced cloud cover could allow radiative cooling to push readings toward the lower end of that band, while any strengthening warm advection would favor outcomes near or above 18 °C. Historical records show May minima averaging 11–14 °C at the official Incheon station, so the current market-implied balance between the 22 °C-or-higher and 12 °C-or-below brackets reflects uncertainty in the 96-hour forecast evolution, particularly the strength of incoming high pressure and wind speeds during the overnight hours. Updated model runs through the weekend will clarify whether a late-week ridge strengthens enough to suppress the lower tail of the distribution.