Ensemble forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models indicate Panama City highs near 32–33°C on May 18, driven by peak solar insolation near the summer solstice and a persistent warm southerly flow across the Isthmus. Afternoon convection typical of the early rainy season could cap temperatures through increased cloud cover and scattered showers, while clearer conditions would allow stronger surface heating. Recent model runs show modest spread around these values, consistent with historical May maxima averaging 31–34°C and limited variability from ENSO-neutral conditions. Traders appear to weigh the narrow gap between 32°C and 33°C outcomes against the timing of any convective initiation, with official Panamanian meteorological service guidance expected to refine the picture over the next 48 hours.