Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Tokyo's May 16 high temperature, with implied probabilities tightly clustered at 20-21% for 24-26°C outcomes, aligning with Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and global model ensembles projecting peaks in this range amid above-normal spring warmth. Recent observations show Tokyo highs 2-3°C above the mid-May climatological average of 23°C, fueled by persistent upper-level ridging and southerly winds advecting warmer air from the Pacific, but divergent model runs highlight risks: clearer skies could push toward 26-27°C via enhanced solar heating, while increasing cloudiness or sea breeze intensification might cap at 23-24°C. Extremes like 28°C+ remain unlikely (<5%) given pre-rainy season patterns; watch JMA's next advisory for refined guidance.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 16?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 16?
26°C 37%
25°C 25%
27°C 20%
24°C 15%
신규
신규
2026.05.16
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
1%
22°C
1%
23°C
3%
24°C
15%
25°C
25%
26°C
37%
27°C
21%
28°C or higher
7%
26°C 37%
25°C 25%
27°C 20%
24°C 15%
신규
신규
2026.05.16
18°C or below
$32 거래량
<1%
19°C
$435 거래량
<1%
20°C
$284 거래량
1%
21°C
$167 거래량
1%
22°C
$239 거래량
1%
23°C
$149 거래량
3%
24°C
$12 거래량
15%
25°C
$216 거래량
25%
26°C
$68 거래량
37%
27°C
$30 거래량
21%
28°C or higher
$90 거래량
7%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Tokyo's May 16 high temperature, with implied probabilities tightly clustered at 20-21% for 24-26°C outcomes, aligning with Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and global model ensembles projecting peaks in this range amid above-normal spring warmth. Recent observations show Tokyo highs 2-3°C above the mid-May climatological average of 23°C, fueled by persistent upper-level ridging and southerly winds advecting warmer air from the Pacific, but divergent model runs highlight risks: clearer skies could push toward 26-27°C via enhanced solar heating, while increasing cloudiness or sea breeze intensification might cap at 23-24°C. Extremes like 28°C+ remain unlikely (<5%) given pre-rainy season patterns; watch JMA's next advisory for refined guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
마켓 개설일: May 14, 2026, 12:23 AM ET
거래량
$1,722종료일
2026.05.16마켓 개설일
May 14, 2026, 12:23 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Tokyo's May 16 high temperature, with implied probabilities tightly clustered at 20-21% for 24-26°C outcomes, aligning with Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and global model ensembles projecting peaks in this range amid above-normal spring warmth. Recent observations show Tokyo highs 2-3°C above the mid-May climatological average of 23°C, fueled by persistent upper-level ridging and southerly winds advecting warmer air from the Pacific, but divergent model runs highlight risks: clearer skies could push toward 26-27°C via enhanced solar heating, while increasing cloudiness or sea breeze intensification might cap at 23-24°C. Extremes like 28°C+ remain unlikely (<5%) given pre-rainy season patterns; watch JMA's next advisory for refined guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
거래량
$1,722종료일
2026.05.16마켓 개설일
May 14, 2026, 12:23 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Tokyo's May 16 high temperature, with implied probabilities tightly clustered at 20-21% for 24-26°C outcomes, aligning with Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and global model ensembles projecting peaks in this range amid above-normal spring warmth. Recent observations show Tokyo highs 2-3°C above the mid-May climatological average of 23°C, fueled by persistent upper-level ridging and southerly winds advecting warmer air from the Pacific, but divergent model runs highlight risks: clearer skies could push toward 26-27°C via enhanced solar heating, while increasing cloudiness or sea breeze intensification might cap at 23-24°C. Extremes like 28°C+ remain unlikely (<5%) given pre-rainy season patterns; watch JMA's next advisory for refined guidance.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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