Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a maximum temperature of 24°C or higher in Mexico City on May 16, with 99.3% implied probability, driven by consistent forecasts from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) projecting highs of 24-27°C amid a stable warm pattern. Recent SMN advisories through May 14 confirm this trend, with observed highs in the Valle de México reaching 25-27°C under partly cloudy skies and minimal precipitation risk, aligning with May climatology where average highs hit 26°C at the city's 2,240-meter elevation during the dry season peak. Model ensembles from SMN's 96-hour outlook show low support for cooling influences like cold fronts, which are rare this late in spring. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen influx of cooler mid-level air or heavy showers suppressing daytime heating, though such shifts remain improbable per current guidance; expect refined SMN updates on May 15.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Highest temperature in Mexico City on May 16?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on May 16?
24°C or higher 99.4%
14°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
23°C <1%
신규
신규
2026.05.16
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C or higher
99%
24°C or higher 99.4%
14°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
23°C <1%
신규
신규
2026.05.16
14°C or below
$466 거래량
<1%
15°C
$484 거래량
<1%
16°C
$484 거래량
<1%
17°C
$532 거래량
<1%
18°C
$466 거래량
<1%
19°C
$710 거래량
<1%
20°C
$537 거래량
<1%
21°C
$737 거래량
<1%
22°C
$710 거래량
<1%
23°C
$749 거래량
<1%
24°C or higher
$734 거래량
99%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a maximum temperature of 24°C or higher in Mexico City on May 16, with 99.3% implied probability, driven by consistent forecasts from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) projecting highs of 24-27°C amid a stable warm pattern. Recent SMN advisories through May 14 confirm this trend, with observed highs in the Valle de México reaching 25-27°C under partly cloudy skies and minimal precipitation risk, aligning with May climatology where average highs hit 26°C at the city's 2,240-meter elevation during the dry season peak. Model ensembles from SMN's 96-hour outlook show low support for cooling influences like cold fronts, which are rare this late in spring. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen influx of cooler mid-level air or heavy showers suppressing daytime heating, though such shifts remain improbable per current guidance; expect refined SMN updates on May 15.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
마켓 개설일: May 14, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
거래량
$6,607종료일
2026.05.16마켓 개설일
May 14, 2026, 12:28 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a maximum temperature of 24°C or higher in Mexico City on May 16, with 99.3% implied probability, driven by consistent forecasts from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) projecting highs of 24-27°C amid a stable warm pattern. Recent SMN advisories through May 14 confirm this trend, with observed highs in the Valle de México reaching 25-27°C under partly cloudy skies and minimal precipitation risk, aligning with May climatology where average highs hit 26°C at the city's 2,240-meter elevation during the dry season peak. Model ensembles from SMN's 96-hour outlook show low support for cooling influences like cold fronts, which are rare this late in spring. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen influx of cooler mid-level air or heavy showers suppressing daytime heating, though such shifts remain improbable per current guidance; expect refined SMN updates on May 15.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
거래량
$6,607종료일
2026.05.16마켓 개설일
May 14, 2026, 12:28 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a maximum temperature of 24°C or higher in Mexico City on May 16, with 99.3% implied probability, driven by consistent forecasts from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) projecting highs of 24-27°C amid a stable warm pattern. Recent SMN advisories through May 14 confirm this trend, with observed highs in the Valle de México reaching 25-27°C under partly cloudy skies and minimal precipitation risk, aligning with May climatology where average highs hit 26°C at the city's 2,240-meter elevation during the dry season peak. Model ensembles from SMN's 96-hour outlook show low support for cooling influences like cold fronts, which are rare this late in spring. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen influx of cooler mid-level air or heavy showers suppressing daytime heating, though such shifts remain improbable per current guidance; expect refined SMN updates on May 15.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문